Results: GATX Corporation Beat Earnings Expectations And Analysts Now Have New Forecasts

GATX Corporation (NYSE:GATX) came out with its first-quarter results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$380m were in line with what the analysts predicted, GATX surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$2.03 per share, a notable 16% above expectations. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on GATX after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for GATX

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from GATX's four analysts is for revenues of US$1.55b in 2024. This would reflect a credible 6.9% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to accumulate 8.0% to US$7.64. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$1.55b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$7.56 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at US$138. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values GATX at US$148 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$122. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that GATX is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the GATX's past performance and to peers in the same industry. The analysts are definitely expecting GATX's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 9.2% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 2.1% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.7% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that GATX is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$138, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for GATX going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here..

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 3 warning signs for GATX (1 is concerning!) that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.