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Federal Signal Corporation (NYSE:FSS), which is in the machinery business, and is based in United States, saw a double-digit share price rise of over 10% in the past couple of months on the NYSE. As a stock with high coverage by analysts, you could assume any recent changes in the company’s outlook is already priced into the stock. But what if there is still an opportunity to buy? Today I will analyse the most recent data on Federal Signal’s outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists.
What’s the opportunity in Federal Signal?The stock seems fairly valued at the moment according to my valuation model. It’s trading around 15% below my intrinsic value, which means if you buy Federal Signal today, you’d be paying a fair price for it. And if you believe that the stock is really worth $25.84, then there isn’t much room for the share price grow beyond what it’s currently trading. So, is there another chance to buy low in the future? Given that Federal Signal’s share is fairly volatile (i.e. its price movements are magnified relative to the rest of the market) this could mean the price can sink lower, giving us an opportunity to buy later on. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for share price volatility.
What kind of growth will Federal Signal generate?Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let’s also take a look at the company’s future expectations. However, with a negative profit growth of -0.2% expected over the next couple of years, near-term growth certainly doesn’t appear to be a driver for a buy decision for Federal Signal. This certainty tips the risk-return scale towards higher risk.
What this means for you:
Are you a shareholder? FSS seems fairly priced right now, but given the uncertainty from negative returns in the future, this could be the right time to de-risk your portfolio. Is your current exposure to the stock beneficial for your total portfolio? And is the opportunity cost of holding a negative-outlook stock too high? Before you make a decision on the stock, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.
Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on FSS for a while, now may not be the most optimal time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. The stock appears to be trading at fair value, which means there’s less benefit from mispricing. Furthermore, the negative growth outlook increases the risk of holding the stock. However, there are also other important factors we haven’t considered today, which can help crystalize your views on FSS should the price fluctuate below its true value.
Price is just the tip of the iceberg. Dig deeper into what truly matters – the fundamentals – before you make a decision on Federal Signal. You can find everything you need to know about Federal Signal in the latest infographic research report. If you are no longer interested in Federal Signal, you can use our free platform to see my list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.
To help readers see past the short term volatility of the financial market, we aim to bring you a long-term focused research analysis purely driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis does not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements.
The author is an independent contributor and at the time of publication had no position in the stocks mentioned. For errors that warrant correction please contact the editor at firstname.lastname@example.org.