Federal Signal Corporation's (NYSE:FSS) 29% Price Boost Is Out Of Tune With Earnings

Federal Signal Corporation (NYSE:FSS) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has bounced 29% in the last month, although it is still struggling to make up recently lost ground. Unfortunately, despite the strong performance over the last month, the full year gain of 2.7% isn't as attractive.

Since its price has surged higher, Federal Signal's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 25.8x might make it look like a sell right now compared to the market in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 17x and even P/E's below 10x are quite common. However, the P/E might be high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

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Federal Signal certainly has been doing a good job lately as it's been growing earnings more than most other companies. The P/E is probably high because investors think this strong earnings performance will continue. If not, then existing shareholders might be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

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Does Growth Match The High P/E?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as high as Federal Signal's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew earnings per share by an impressive 16% last year. Pleasingly, EPS has also lifted 114% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the last 12 months of growth. Accordingly, shareholders would have probably welcomed those medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to climb by 13% during the coming year according to the seven analysts following the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to expand by 13%, which is not materially different.

In light of this, it's curious that Federal Signal's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly average growth expectations and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. Although, additional gains will be difficult to achieve as this level of earnings growth is likely to weigh down the share price eventually.

What We Can Learn From Federal Signal's P/E?

Federal Signal shares have received a push in the right direction, but its P/E is elevated too. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

Our examination of Federal Signal's analyst forecasts revealed that its market-matching earnings outlook isn't impacting its high P/E as much as we would have predicted. Right now we are uncomfortable with the relatively high share price as the predicted future earnings aren't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. This places shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

Many other vital risk factors can be found on the company's balance sheet. You can assess many of the main risks through our free balance sheet analysis for Federal Signal with six simple checks.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.