Ducommun Incorporated Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For This Year

Shareholders might have noticed that Ducommun Incorporated (NYSE:DCO) filed its annual result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.2% to US$49.13 in the past week. Ducommun reported US$757m in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.14 beat expectations, being 9.6% higher than what the analysts expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Ducommun

Following the latest results, Ducommun's five analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$797.6m in 2024. This would be a credible 5.4% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to jump 110% to US$2.30. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$812.6m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.36 in 2024. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at US$64.80, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Ducommun, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$72.00 and the most bearish at US$58.00 per share. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Ducommun is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's clear from the latest estimates that Ducommun's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 5.4% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 2.0% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to see revenue growth of 6.5% annually. It seems obvious that, while the future growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, Ducommun is expected to grow slower than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Ducommun's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Ducommun analysts - going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Ducommun you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.