China Yuchai International (NYSE:CYD) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of CYD when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

CYD ($9.02) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] ($15.05)

CYD fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	6/6
Future Growth	3/6
Past Performance	1/6
Financial Health	5/6
Dividends	3/6

CYD Stock Overview

Rewards

Trading at 40.1% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 25.14% per year

Risk Analysis

Dividend of 4.43% is not well covered by earnings

Profit margins (1.3%) are lower than last year (2.7%)

China Yuchai International Competitors

Manitowoc Company

NYSE:MTW

US$374.0m

Xos

NasdaqGM:XOS

US$294.9m

Shyft Group

NasdaqGS:SHYF

US$654.5m

Miller Industries

NYSE:MLR

US$263.8m

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for China Yuchai International
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$9.02
52 Week High	US$16.41
52 Week Low	US$8.61
Beta	1.24
1 Month Change	-16.64%
3 Month Change	-23.23%
1 Year Change	-44.53%
3 Year Change	-42.95%
5 Year Change	-54.61%
Change since IPO	-10.91%

Recent News & Updates

Jun 27

China Yuchai International's (NYSE:CYD) Dividend Is Being Reduced To US$0.40

China Yuchai International Limited ( NYSE:CYD ) is reducing its dividend to US$0.40 on the 15th of July. However, the...

May 11

At US$9.49, Is It Time To Put China Yuchai International Limited (NYSE:CYD) On Your Watch List?

China Yuchai International Limited ( NYSE:CYD ), might not be a large cap stock, but it received a lot of attention...

Shareholder Returns

	CYD	US Machinery	US Market
7D	-6.3%	-2.5%	-2.2%
1Y	-44.5%	-22.5%	-21.2%

Return vs Industry: CYD underperformed the US Machinery industry which returned -22.5% over the past year.

Return vs Market: CYD underperformed the US Market which returned -21.2% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is CYD's price volatile compared to industry and market?
CYD volatility
CYD Average Weekly Movement	6.2%
Machinery Industry Average Movement	6.2%
Market Average Movement	8.1%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	16.9%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	3.3%

Stable Share Price: CYD is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 6% a week.

Volatility Over Time: CYD's weekly volatility (6%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1951	8,924	n/a	https://www.cyilimited.com

China Yuchai International Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures, assembles, and sells diesel and natural gas engines for trucks, buses and passenger vehicles, marine, industrial, and agriculture applications in the People’s Republic of China and internationally. It operates through two segments, Yuchai and HLGE. The company provides diesel engines comprising 4- and 6-cylinder diesel engines, high horsepower marine diesel engines, and power generator engines, as well as natural gas engines, diesel power generators, diesel engine parts, and remanufacturing services; and generator sets, as well as plug in hybrid engines, range extenders, power generation powertrains, hybrid powertrains, integrated electric drive axel powertrains, and fuel cell systems.

China Yuchai International Fundamentals Summary

How do China Yuchai International's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
CYD fundamental statistics
Market Cap	CN¥2.47b
Earnings (TTM)	CN¥272.67m
Revenue (TTM)	CN¥21.27b

9.1x

P/E Ratio

0.1x

P/S Ratio

Is CYD overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
CYD income statement (TTM)
Revenue	CN¥21.27b
Cost of Revenue	CN¥18.31b
Gross Profit	CN¥2.96b
Other Expenses	CN¥2.69b
Earnings	CN¥272.67m

Last Reported Earnings

Dec 31, 2021

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	6.67
Gross Margin	13.92%
Net Profit Margin	1.28%
Debt/Equity Ratio	19.0%

How did CYD perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

4.4%

Current Dividend Yield

38%

Payout Ratio

Does CYD pay a reliable dividends?

See CYD dividend history and benchmarks

When do you need to buy CYD by to receive an upcoming dividend?
China Yuchai International dividend dates
Ex Dividend Date	Jul 05 2022
Dividend Pay Date	Jul 15 2022
Days until Ex dividend	1 day
Days until Dividend pay date	11 days

Does CYD pay a reliable dividends?

See CYD dividend history and benchmarks

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is CYD undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CYD?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for CYD. This is calculated by dividing CYD's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is CYD's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	CN¥2.47b

CYD key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.1x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	2.2x
PEG Ratio	0.4x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does CYD's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

CYD PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for CYD vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	17.4x
MTW Manitowoc Company	21.7x	43.0%	US$374.0m
XOS Xos	18.4x	90.6%	US$294.9m
SHYF Shyft Group	12.3x	59.2%	US$654.5m
MLR Miller Industries	17.4x	n/a	US$263.8m
CYD China Yuchai International	9.1x	25.1%	US$368.5m

Forward PE

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CYD is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.1x) compared to the peer average (17.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does CYD's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Machinery Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: CYD is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.1x) compared to the US Machinery industry average (20.2x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CYD's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CYD PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	9.1x
Fair PE Ratio	19.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: CYD is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.6x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CYD when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: CYD ($9.02) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($15.05)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CYD is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: CYD is good value based on its PEG Ratio (0.4x)

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Future Growth

How is China Yuchai International forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 2 analysts?

Future Growth Score

3/6

Future Growth Score 3/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

25.1%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: CYD's forecast earnings growth (25.1% per year) is above the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: CYD's earnings (25.1% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (13.6% per year).

High Growth Earnings: CYD's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: CYD's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-0.9% per year).

High Growth Revenue: CYD's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-0.9% per year).

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: CYD's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (6.1%).

Discover growth companies

Past Performance

How has China Yuchai International performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

1/6

Past Performance Score 1/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-11.4%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: CYD has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: CYD's current net profit margins (1.3%) are lower than last year (2.7%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: CYD's earnings have declined by 11.4% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: CYD's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: CYD had negative earnings growth (-50.3%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Machinery industry average (23.3%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: CYD's Return on Equity (3.5%) is considered low.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is China Yuchai International's financial position?

Financial Health Score

5/6

Financial Health Score 5/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: CYD's short term assets (CN¥18.0B) exceed its short term liabilities (CN¥12.6B).

Long Term Liabilities: CYD's short term assets (CN¥18.0B) exceed its long term liabilities (CN¥848.5M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: CYD has more cash than its total debt.

Reducing Debt: CYD's debt to equity ratio has increased from 9.1% to 19% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: CYD's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (22.9%).

Interest Coverage: CYD earns more interest than it pays, so coverage of interest payments is not a concern.

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is China Yuchai International current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

4/6

Dividend Score 4/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

4.43%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: CYD's dividend (4.43%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.6%).

High Dividend: CYD's dividend (4.43%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4.25%)

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: CYD's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: CYD's dividend payments have fallen over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonably low payout ratio (38.1%), CYD's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: CYD is paying a dividend but the company has no free cash flows.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

9.0yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

China Yuchai International has no CEO, or we have no data on them.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: CYD's management team is seasoned and experienced (9 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: CYD's board of directors are considered experienced (9.3 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/07/03 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/07/01 00:00
Earnings	2021/12/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31