Carrier Global (CARR): Assessing Valuation After a 27% Three-Month Share Price Decline

Carrier Global (CARR) shares have seen their value slide over the past 3 months, with the stock down nearly 27%. This period included a mix of industry headwinds as well as shifting sentiment around capital goods companies.

See our latest analysis for Carrier Global.

While Carrier Global's 27% slide over the past three months grabs attention, it is part of a broader downward stretch, with a one-year total shareholder return of -30.24%. Despite short-term setbacks and a recent cooling in momentum, shareholders who held the stock over the last three or five years are still up significantly, showing gains of 66.6% and 71.9% respectively on a total return basis. This serves as a reminder that even established names in the capital goods sector can experience sharp swings, especially when industry sentiment shifts.

If Carrier Global’s recent volatility has you looking for fresh perspectives, now is a great moment to broaden your search and discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership

With shares trading well below recent highs and analysts predicting significant upside, the key question now is whether Carrier Global’s current price reflects all possible risks and growth, or if an attractive buying window has just opened.

Most Popular Narrative: 26% Undervalued

Carrier Global's narrative fair value of $76.18 stands well above its last close at $56.20. This highlights a sharp gap between the market's current skepticism and forward-looking forecasts. This popular narrative considers the long-term impact of Carrier's growth levers and operational moves, shaping an optimistic outlook for future returns.

Carrier's introduction of differentiated products, such as air-cooled commercial heat pumps and the integration of HEMS technology with Google Cloud's AI, positions them to capture the growing demand for sustainable and smart energy solutions, potentially driving future revenue growth.

Read the complete narrative.

What hidden assumptions power this ambitious fair value? The narrative relies on a significant leap in both profitability and sales, with a growth trajectory more often seen in fast-moving disruptors. Want to see the exact projections guiding this bullish scenario? Find out how much room analysts see for Carrier to expand and what it would take to reach that premium valuation.

Result: Fair Value of $76.18 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent challenges in Carrier's residential HVAC sales and vulnerability to tariff impacts could quickly undermine the current bullish outlook.

Find out about the key risks to this Carrier Global narrative.

Build Your Own Carrier Global Narrative

If you think there’s more to the story or want to evaluate the numbers your own way, it only takes a few minutes to build your own view. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Carrier Global research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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