Revenue Beat: BWX Technologies, Inc. Exceeded Revenue Forecasts By 6.6% And Analysts Are Updating Their Estimates

BWX Technologies, Inc. (NYSE:BWXT) investors will be delighted, with the company turning in some strong numbers with its latest results. The company beat expectations with revenues of US$681m arriving 6.6% ahead of forecasts. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) were US$0.79, 5.3% ahead of estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for BWX Technologies

Following last week's earnings report, BWX Technologies' nine analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be US$2.64b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to rise 7.7% to US$3.15. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$2.63b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.12 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at US$110. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on BWX Technologies, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$123 and the most bearish at US$90.00 per share. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that BWX Technologies is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that BWX Technologies' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 3.2% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 6.0% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 2.6% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while BWX Technologies' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for BWX Technologies going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that BWX Technologies is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.