Should Investors Reassess Bloom Energy After a 1,019% Stock Surge and Renewable Policy Momentum?

If you have been watching Bloom Energy lately, you are not alone. The company has been on an absolute tear. Over just the last week, shares have jumped 33.1%. Zoom out to one month, and the stock is up a staggering 73.9%. If you really want to be impressed, check out the year-to-date return: 398.8%. For longer-term holders, Bloom Energy has soared 610.9% in the last five years, with a jaw-dropping 1,019.9% return over the past year alone. That kind of growth gets attention, and whether you are considering holding, buying in, or taking some profits off the table, it is worth digging into what is behind these moves.

A big part of Bloom Energy’s story recently has been tied to market developments that are shining a brighter spotlight on clean tech and distributed energy solutions. Global trends in renewable adoption and increasing government policy support have driven fresh optimism. Even with that momentum, you might be thinking about whether Bloom Energy’s stock is actually undervalued or if all this excitement is already reflected in the price.

Based on six different valuation checks, Bloom Energy did not score as undervalued in any of them and landed a valuation score of 0 out of 6. On paper, at least, it may not look like a bargain buy right now. However, numbers tell only part of the story. Next, we will break down the most common valuation approaches used by analysts. Before we wrap up, I will show you a smarter way to truly gauge whether Bloom Energy is worth your investment attention.

Bloom Energy scores just 0/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Bloom Energy Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates a company’s intrinsic value by projecting its future cash flows and discounting them back to today’s dollars. This gives investors a clearer perspective on what the business is truly worth, taking into account both current performance and potential growth.

For Bloom Energy, the DCF model starts with a current Free Cash Flow (FCF) of about $1.2 million. Analysts offer projections out five years, anticipating substantial growth in FCF, with estimates such as $189.3 million in 2026, scaling up to $784 million by 2029. Extrapolated figures by Simply Wall St continue the strong growth trajectory, reaching just over $1.9 billion in FCF by 2035. All figures are presented in US dollars.

Based on these collective projections, the DCF model calculates an intrinsic fair value of $83.59 per share. However, the current share price stands about 39.5 percent above this valuation, concluding that the stock is significantly overvalued by this method.

Result: OVERVALUED

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Bloom Energy.

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Bloom Energy may be overvalued by 39.5%. Find undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.

Approach 2: Bloom Energy Price vs Sales

For many high-growth or still unprofitable companies, the Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio is a particularly useful valuation metric. It allows investors to compare how the market is valuing a company's revenue streams, regardless of current net profits. Growth expectations and risk both play a major role here. Companies with higher, more predictable growth usually command higher P/S ratios, while those with more risk or slower growth should trade at lower multiples.

Bloom Energy currently trades at a P/S ratio of 16.7x. For context, the average across its direct peers sits at 6.5x, while the broader electrical industry has an average P/S ratio of just 2.6x. This means Bloom Energy’s valuation is well above both its peer group and the industry at large, likely reflecting optimism for future revenue growth.

Simply Wall St’s proprietary “Fair Ratio” for Bloom Energy is 7.0x. Unlike a straight peer or industry comparison, this Fair Ratio factors in the company’s unique growth prospects, profitability, industry, profit margins, and risks in a single number. By accounting for these business-specific factors, it delivers a more tailored and realistic sense of what a fair multiple should be.

Comparing Bloom Energy’s current P/S of 16.7x to the Fair Ratio of 7.0x suggests the shares are trading at a substantial premium and are likely overvalued on this measure.

Result: OVERVALUED

PS ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Bloom Energy Narrative

Earlier we mentioned there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let's introduce you to Narratives. A Narrative is simply your own story about a company, blending your assumptions and beliefs about its future revenue, profits, and growth into a detailed financial forecast and fair value estimate.

Unlike just looking at price ratios or past numbers, Narratives connect what you believe about Bloom Energy's business future directly to an actual valuation and investment plan. This approach is easy to use and available right on the Simply Wall St Community page, where millions of investors actively share and compare their perspectives.

Narratives in the platform help you decide when to buy or sell by showing you, at a glance, how your own Fair Value stacks up against the current Price. As soon as there is new information, like company results or news, Narratives are refreshed dynamically, helping you always factor in the most up-to-date view of the business.

For example, on Bloom Energy, the most optimistic Narrative sees a $48.00 fair value (expecting rapid tech adoption and margin expansion), while the most cautious puts fair value at $10.00 (highlighting competition and reliance on natural gas). With Narratives, you can clearly see the range of reasoned perspectives and easily build your own.

Do you think there's more to the story for Bloom Energy? Create your own Narrative to let the Community know!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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