Investors Still Waiting For A Pull Back In The AZEK Company Inc. (NYSE:AZEK)

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 50.2x The AZEK Company Inc. (NYSE:AZEK) may be sending very bearish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in the United States have P/E ratios under 15x and even P/E's lower than 8x are not unusual. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

AZEK hasn't been tracking well recently as its declining earnings compare poorly to other companies, which have seen some growth on average. It might be that many expect the dour earnings performance to recover substantially, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. If not, then existing shareholders may be extremely nervous about the viability of the share price.

View our latest analysis for AZEK

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Is There Enough Growth For AZEK?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as steep as AZEK's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market decidedly.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 19% decrease to the company's bottom line. This has erased any of its gains during the last three years, with practically no change in EPS being achieved in total. Therefore, it's fair to say that earnings growth has been inconsistent recently for the company.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 21% per annum over the next three years. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to only expand by 9.3% per year, which is noticeably less attractive.

In light of this, it's understandable that AZEK's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently shareholders aren't keen to offload something that is potentially eyeing a more prosperous future.

The Key Takeaway

We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

As we suspected, our examination of AZEK's analyst forecasts revealed that its superior earnings outlook is contributing to its high P/E. Right now shareholders are comfortable with the P/E as they are quite confident future earnings aren't under threat. It's hard to see the share price falling strongly in the near future under these circumstances.

The company's balance sheet is another key area for risk analysis. Our free balance sheet analysis for AZEK with six simple checks will allow you to discover any risks that could be an issue.

You might be able to find a better investment than AZEK. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a P/E below 20x (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.