Atkore (ATKR): Reassessing Valuation After a 28% One-Year Share Price Decline

Atkore (ATKR) has quietly fallen about 5% over the past month and nearly 28% in the past year, even as revenue and earnings have grown. This sets up an interesting disconnect for value focused investors.

See our latest analysis for Atkore.

Despite the recent pullback and a year to date share price return of negative 18.60%, Atkore’s 90 day share price return of 13.86% suggests sentiment may be stabilising as investors reassess its growth and risk profile.

If Atkore’s mixed momentum has you reassessing your watchlist, this could be a good moment to explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership for other compelling growth stories.

With shares down sharply over the past year, even as earnings surge and the stock now trades slightly above analyst targets, investors may be asking whether Atkore is a mispriced value opportunity or whether the market is already discounting its future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 4.2% Overvalued

With Atkore last closing at $66.28 against a narrative fair value of $63.60, the story leans slightly cautious on today’s pricing.

High tariffs on imported steel and PVC conduit are reducing foreign competition and leading to significantly lower import volumes, positioning Atkore to recapture market share in domestically sourced steel conduit over time. This supports increased revenue potential and sustained or improved net margins.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how flat top line expectations can still support rising profits and a lower future earnings multiple than the industry norm? Want to see the full playbook behind those assumptions and how they add up to that fair value? The projections may surprise you.

Result: Fair Value of $63.60 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent pricing pressure and unpredictable mega project timing could easily derail those margin and earnings assumptions, which could force a rethink of today’s cautious optimism.

Find out about the key risks to this Atkore narrative.

Another View: Sales Multiple Signals Value

While the narrative fair value suggests Atkore is slightly overvalued, its current price to sales ratio of 0.8 times looks cheap against peers at 4.4 times and a fair ratio of 1.1 times. If sentiment normalizes toward that fair ratio, could today’s discount narrow meaningfully?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Atkore Narrative

If you see the story differently or prefer to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a complete view in just a few minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Atkore research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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