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There's Reason For Concern Over Albany International Corp.'s (NYSE:AIN) Price
With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 26x Albany International Corp. (NYSE:AIN) may be sending bearish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in the United States have P/E ratios under 18x and even P/E's lower than 11x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/E.
There hasn't been much to differentiate Albany International's and the market's earnings growth lately. It might be that many expect the mediocre earnings performance to strengthen positively, which has kept the P/E from falling. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.
See our latest analysis for Albany International
Keen to find out how analysts think Albany International's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.How Is Albany International's Growth Trending?
The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as high as Albany International's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered virtually the same number to the company's bottom line as the year before. The lack of growth did nothing to help the company's aggregate three-year performance, which is an unsavory 12% drop in EPS. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing earnings over that time.
Turning to the outlook, the next year should generate growth of 9.9% as estimated by the five analysts watching the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to expand by 15%, which is noticeably more attractive.
In light of this, it's alarming that Albany International's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as this level of earnings growth is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.
The Final Word
Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.
Our examination of Albany International's analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior earnings outlook isn't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted. When we see a weak earnings outlook with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless these conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.
The company's balance sheet is another key area for risk analysis. You can assess many of the main risks through our free balance sheet analysis for Albany International with six simple checks.
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About NYSE:AIN
Albany International
Engages in the machine clothing and engineered composites businesses.
Flawless balance sheet average dividend payer.