Albany International (NYSE:AIN) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of AIN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

AIN ($80.11) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] ($135.48)

AIN fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	3/6
Future Growth	1/6
Past Performance	2/6
Financial Health	6/6
Dividends	4/6

AIN Stock Overview

Albany International Corp., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the textile and materials processing business.

Rewards

Trading at 40.9% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 10.36% per year

Earnings have grown 20.4% per year over the past 5 years

Risk Analysis

No risks detected for AIN from our risk checks.

Albany International Competitors

SPX

NYSE:SPXC

US$2.4b

ESAB

NYSE:ESAB

US$2.6b

Welbilt

NYSE:WBT

US$3.4b

Altra Industrial Motion

NasdaqGS:AIMC

US$2.3b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Albany International
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$80.11
52 Week High	US$91.53
52 Week Low	US$74.17
Beta	1.29
1 Month Change	-4.42%
3 Month Change	-6.64%
1 Year Change	-9.79%
3 Year Change	-2.70%
5 Year Change	48.22%
Change since IPO	340.16%

Recent News & Updates

May 26

Albany International (NYSE:AIN) Has Re-Affirmed Its Dividend Of US$0.21

Albany International Corp.'s ( NYSE:AIN ) investors are due to receive a payment of US$0.21 per share on 8th of July...

May 19

Returns On Capital Are Showing Encouraging Signs At Albany International (NYSE:AIN)

What trends should we look for it we want to identify stocks that can multiply in value over the long term? Firstly...

May 04

These 4 Measures Indicate That Albany International (NYSE:AIN) Is Using Debt Reasonably Well

Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it might be obvious that you need to...

Shareholder Returns

	AIN	US Machinery	US Market
7D	1.0%	-2.6%	-2.5%
1Y	-9.8%	-22.5%	-21.2%

Return vs Industry: AIN exceeded the US Machinery industry which returned -22.9% over the past year.

Return vs Market: AIN exceeded the US Market which returned -21.7% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is AIN's price volatile compared to industry and market?
AIN volatility
AIN Average Weekly Movement	5.0%
Machinery Industry Average Movement	6.2%
Market Average Movement	8.1%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	16.9%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	3.2%

Stable Share Price: AIN is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 5% a week.

Volatility Over Time: AIN's weekly volatility (5%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1895	4,100	Bill Higgins	https://www.albint.com

Albany International Corp., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the textile and materials processing business. The company operates in two segments, Machine Clothing (MC) and Albany Engineered Composites (AEC). The MC segment designs, manufactures, and markets paper machine clothing for use in the manufacturing of papers, paperboards, tissues, and towels.

Albany International Fundamentals Summary

How do Albany International's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
AIN fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$2.52b
Earnings (TTM)	US$118.63m
Revenue (TTM)	US$951.05m

21.3x

P/E Ratio

2.7x

P/S Ratio

Is AIN overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
AIN income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$951.05m
Cost of Revenue	US$569.60m
Gross Profit	US$381.45m
Other Expenses	US$262.82m
Earnings	US$118.63m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

Jul 25, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)	3.77
Gross Margin	40.11%
Net Profit Margin	12.47%
Debt/Equity Ratio	49.6%

How did AIN perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

1.0%

Current Dividend Yield

22%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is AIN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AIN?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for AIN. This is calculated by dividing AIN's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is AIN's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$2.52b

AIN key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	2.8x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	10.7x
PEG Ratio	2.1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AIN's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

AIN PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for AIN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	44.4x
SPXC SPX	49.9x	41.1%	US$2.4b
ESAB ESAB	11.2x	8.9%	US$2.6b
WBT Welbilt	46.3x	55.7%	US$3.4b
AIMC Altra Industrial Motion	70.2x	55.1%	US$2.3b
AIN Albany International	21.3x	10.4%	US$2.5b

Forward PE

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AIN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.3x) compared to the peer average (44.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AIN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Machinery Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AIN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.3x) compared to the US Machinery industry average (20.2x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AIN's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AIN PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	21.3x
Fair PE Ratio	17.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AIN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.3x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AIN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AIN ($80.11) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($135.48)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AIN is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: AIN is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (2.1x)

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Future Growth

How is Albany International forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 6 analysts?

Future Growth Score

1/6

Future Growth Score 1/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

10.4%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: AIN's forecast earnings growth (10.4% per year) is above the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: AIN's earnings (10.4% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (13.6% per year).

High Growth Earnings: AIN's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: AIN's revenue (5.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (8.2% per year).

High Growth Revenue: AIN's revenue (5.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if AIN's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time

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Past Performance

How has Albany International performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

2/6

Past Performance Score 2/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

20.4%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: AIN has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: AIN's current net profit margins (12.5%) are lower than last year (13.2%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: AIN's earnings have grown significantly by 20.4% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: AIN's earnings growth over the past year (1.3%) is below its 5-year average (20.4% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: AIN earnings growth over the past year (1.3%) underperformed the Machinery industry 22.7%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: AIN's Return on Equity (13.8%) is considered low.

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Financial Health

How is Albany International's financial position?

Financial Health Score

6/6

Financial Health Score 6/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: AIN's short term assets ($788.6M) exceed its short term liabilities ($178.1M).

Long Term Liabilities: AIN's short term assets ($788.6M) exceed its long term liabilities ($537.7M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: AIN's net debt to equity ratio (14.1%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: AIN's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 90.9% to 49.6% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: AIN's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (41.6%).

Interest Coverage: AIN's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (11.8x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Albany International current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

4/6

Dividend Score 4/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

1.05%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: AIN's dividend (1.05%) isn’t notable compared to the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.61%).

High Dividend: AIN's dividend (1.05%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4.3%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: AIN's dividends per share have been stable in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: AIN's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its low payout ratio (22.3%), AIN's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its low cash payout ratio (21.8%), AIN's dividend payments are well covered by cash flows.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

3.3yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Bill Higgins (64 yo)

2.42yrs

Tenure

US$4,725,711

Compensation

Mr. Andrew William Higgins, also known as Bill, serves as President and Chief executive officer of Albany International Corp. since January 20, 2020 and served as its the Chairman since February 25, 2019 u...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Bill's total compensation ($USD4.73M) is below average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD6.90M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Bill's compensation has increased by more than 20% in the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: AIN's management team is considered experienced (3.3 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: AIN's board of directors are considered experienced (5.5 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/07/01 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/07/01 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31