AGCO Corporation Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

AGCO Corporation (NYSE:AGCO) missed earnings with its latest third-quarter results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. Unfortunately, AGCO delivered a serious earnings miss. Revenues of US$2.6b were 10% below expectations, and statutory earnings per share of US$0.40 missed estimates by 58%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for AGCO

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the 13 analysts covering AGCO, is for revenues of US$11.1b in 2025. This implies an uncomfortable 12% reduction in AGCO's revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 195% to US$6.72. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$11.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$7.59 in 2025. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a real cut to earnings per share estimates.

The consensus price target fell 5.5% to US$105, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on AGCO, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$120 and the most bearish at US$87.00 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 9.8% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 11% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 3.1% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - AGCO is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of AGCO's future valuation.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for AGCO going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 4 warning signs with AGCO (at least 1 which shouldn't be ignored) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.