Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. As with many other companies AerCap Holdings N.V. (NYSE:AER) makes use of debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
What Is AerCap Holdings's Net Debt?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that AerCap Holdings had US$28.7b of debt in March 2021, down from US$33.0b, one year before. However, it also had US$1.46b in cash, and so its net debt is US$27.2b.
How Strong Is AerCap Holdings' Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, AerCap Holdings had liabilities of US$2.37b due within 12 months, and liabilities of US$30.5b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting this, it had US$1.46b in cash and US$1.97b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$29.4b.
The deficiency here weighs heavily on the US$7.43b company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. After all, AerCap Holdings would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
Weak interest cover of 1.8 times and a disturbingly high net debt to EBITDA ratio of 12.1 hit our confidence in AerCap Holdings like a one-two punch to the gut. This means we'd consider it to have a heavy debt load. Investors should also be troubled by the fact that AerCap Holdings saw its EBIT drop by 19% over the last twelve months. If things keep going like that, handling the debt will about as easy as bundling an angry house cat into its travel box. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if AerCap Holdings can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. During the last three years, AerCap Holdings burned a lot of cash. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.
To be frank both AerCap Holdings's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow and its track record of staying on top of its total liabilities make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. And even its EBIT growth rate fails to inspire much confidence. It looks to us like AerCap Holdings carries a significant balance sheet burden. If you harvest honey without a bee suit, you risk getting stung, so we'd probably stay away from this particular stock. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for AerCap Holdings (of which 1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) you should know about.
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
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What are the risks and opportunities for AerCap Holdings?
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AerCap Holdings N.V. engages in the lease, financing, sale, and management of commercial flight equipment in China, Hong Kong, Macau, the United States, Ireland, and internationally.
Moderate growth potential and slightly overvalued.