Assessing AerCap (AER) Valuation After a Strong 3-Month and 1-Year Share Price Rally

AerCap Holdings (NYSE:AER) has quietly rewarded patient shareholders, with the stock climbing about 16% over the past 3 months and roughly 46% year to date, inviting a closer look at what is driving returns.

See our latest analysis for AerCap Holdings.

That mix of a 16.3% 3 month share price return and a powerful 54.9% 1 year total shareholder return suggests momentum is still building as investors reassess AerCap’s earnings power and capital returns.

If AerCap’s run has you rethinking where growth might come from next, it could be worth exploring aerospace and defense stocks as another way to find aviation adjacent opportunities.

But with shares now near analysts’ targets and trading at what looks like a steep discount to some intrinsic value estimates, investors have to ask: is AerCap still undervalued, or is the market already baking in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 4.8% Undervalued

With AerCap closing at $140.95 against a narrative fair value near $148, the gap is modest but rooted in some punchy long term assumptions.

Prudent capital allocation, supported by a strong balance sheet and ongoing deleveraging, positions AerCap to capture opportunities in sale leasebacks and organic fleet growth as OEM deliveries ramp up, driving revenue and earnings upside while containing interest expense.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how flat revenues and sharply lower margins can still support a higher value? The answer hides in buybacks, capital intensity, and a surprisingly rich future earnings multiple. Want to see how those pieces fit together?

Result: Fair Value of $148 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, a faster than expected ramp in aircraft deliveries or a downturn at key airline customers could quickly pressure lease yields and asset values.

Find out about the key risks to this AerCap Holdings narrative.

Build Your Own AerCap Holdings Narrative

If this view does not quite match your own, dive into the numbers yourself and build a custom AerCap story in minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your AerCap Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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