AerCap Holdings N.V. Just Beat Revenue Estimates By 17%

It's been a good week for AerCap Holdings N.V. (NYSE:AER) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 6.8% to US$130. AerCap Holdings beat revenue forecasts by a solid 17% to hit US$2.3b. Statutory earnings per share came in at US$10.79, in line with expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, AerCap Holdings' six analysts currently expect revenues in 2026 to be US$8.32b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to crater 42% to US$13.18 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$8.29b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$12.80 in 2026. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

See our latest analysis for AerCap Holdings

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$139, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values AerCap Holdings at US$150 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$120. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 0.2% by the end of 2026. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 14% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 7.0% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that AerCap Holdings' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards AerCap Holdings following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that AerCap Holdings' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$139, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple AerCap Holdings analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 3 warning signs for AerCap Holdings (2 don't sit too well with us!) that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.