AerCap Holdings N.V. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions

AerCap Holdings N.V. (NYSE:AER) just released its latest quarterly results and things are looking bullish. The company beat forecasts, with revenue of US$2.1b, some 2.8% above estimates, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) coming in at US$3.48, 47% ahead of expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Following last week's earnings report, AerCap Holdings' seven analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be US$8.13b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to decrease 9.3% to US$10.98 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$8.05b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$10.85 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

See our latest analysis for AerCap Holdings

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$123, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values AerCap Holdings at US$133 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$111. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that AerCap Holdings' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 1.3% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 14% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.1% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that AerCap Holdings is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$123, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for AerCap Holdings going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with AerCap Holdings (including 2 which make us uncomfortable) .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.