Declining Stock and Decent Financials: Is The Market Wrong About Arcosa, Inc. (NYSE:ACA)?

Arcosa (NYSE:ACA) has had a rough three months with its share price down 16%. However, stock prices are usually driven by a company’s financials over the long term, which in this case look pretty respectable. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Arcosa's ROE today.

Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. In other words, it is a profitability ratio which measures the rate of return on the capital provided by the company's shareholders.

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How Is ROE Calculated?

The formula for return on equity is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Arcosa is:

3.9% = US$94m ÷ US$2.4b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2024).

The 'return' is the profit over the last twelve months. So, this means that for every $1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of $0.04.

See our latest analysis for Arcosa

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

Arcosa's Earnings Growth And 3.9% ROE

It is quite clear that Arcosa's ROE is rather low. Not just that, even compared to the industry average of 19%, the company's ROE is entirely unremarkable. However, the moderate 13% net income growth seen by Arcosa over the past five years is definitely a positive. Therefore, the growth in earnings could probably have been caused by other variables. For example, it is possible that the company's management has made some good strategic decisions, or that the company has a low payout ratio.

As a next step, we compared Arcosa's net income growth with the industry and found that the company has a similar growth figure when compared with the industry average growth rate of 13% in the same period.

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. Is ACA fairly valued? This infographic on the company's intrinsic value has everything you need to know.

Is Arcosa Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

In Arcosa's case, its respectable earnings growth can probably be explained by its low three-year median payout ratio of 6.8% (or a retention ratio of 93%), which suggests that the company is investing most of its profits to grow its business.

Besides, Arcosa has been paying dividends over a period of six years. This shows that the company is committed to sharing profits with its shareholders. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company is expected to drop to 4.3% over the next three years. Accordingly, the expected drop in the payout ratio explains the expected increase in the company's ROE to 8.0%, over the same period.

Conclusion

In total, it does look like Arcosa has some positive aspects to its business. Despite its low rate of return, the fact that the company reinvests a very high portion of its profits into its business, no doubt contributed to its high earnings growth. That being so, the latest analyst forecasts show that the company will continue to see an expansion in its earnings. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.