UFP Industries, Inc. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Last week, you might have seen that UFP Industries, Inc. (NASDAQ:UFPI) released its first-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.5% to US$100 in the past week. Revenues were in line with forecasts, at US$1.6b, although statutory earnings per share came in 17% below what the analysts expected, at US$1.30 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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Following last week's earnings report, UFP Industries' four analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be US$6.67b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be US$5.90, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$6.75b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$6.91 in 2025. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the real cut to new EPS forecasts.

Check out our latest analysis for UFP Industries

The average price target fell 5.1% to US$126, with reduced earnings forecasts clearly tied to a lower valuation estimate. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic UFP Industries analyst has a price target of US$155 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$110. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the UFP Industries' past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that UFP Industries' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 1.2% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 5.1% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 5.2% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than UFP Industries.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that UFP Industries' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of UFP Industries' future valuation.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for UFP Industries going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for UFP Industries that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.