Sunrun (RUN) Valuation Check After Choppy Trading and Strong 2024 Share Price Rebound

Sunrun (RUN) shares have been choppy recently, with short term weakness contrasting a sharp rebound over the past year. That mix of losses and recovery is exactly what has investors reassessing the stock.

See our latest analysis for Sunrun.

Viewed over a longer stretch, Sunrun’s 78.06% year to date share price return and 61.46% one year total shareholder return suggest momentum is rebuilding, even if recent pullbacks hint at lingering volatility around perceived growth and policy risks.

If Sunrun’s rebound has you rethinking your clean energy exposure, it might be worth discovering high growth tech and AI stocks as another pocket of the market where innovation is driving powerful trends.

But with shares still trading below analyst targets despite improving growth metrics, investors face a key question: Is Sunrun quietly undervalued here, or already reflecting the market’s expectations for a sunnier growth path ahead?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 20% Undervalued

Compared with Sunrun’s last close at $18.18, the most followed narrative points to a fair value near $22.74, implying meaningful upside if its assumptions hold.

The analysts have a consensus price target of $15.289 for Sunrun based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $25.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $10.0.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how a loss making solar installer ends up with a premium future earnings multiple and a higher fair value than today? The answer hinges on sharply improving profitability expectations, accelerating revenue, and a valuation framework that treats Sunrun more like a long duration growth asset rather than a typical utility. Want to see which specific margin and earnings inflection points drive that conclusion, and how they are blended into one Fair Value number? Read on and decide if those projections stack up.

Result: Fair Value of $22.74 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, this sunnier outlook could dim if tax credit expirations hit residential demand harder than expected or if tighter credit markets constrain Sunrun’s financing.

Find out about the key risks to this Sunrun narrative.

Build Your Own Sunrun Narrative

If you are unconvinced by this view or prefer to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a personalized Sunrun story in just minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Sunrun research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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