A Look at Nextracker (NXT) Valuation After Earnings Beat and Saudi Joint Venture Announcement

Nextracker (NXT) drew investor attention after releasing quarterly results that topped revenue expectations and raising its full-year revenue outlook. The company also announced a joint venture in Saudi Arabia to support international expansion.

See our latest analysis for Nextracker.

Nextracker’s momentum has been hard to miss, with a 1-day share price return of 8.7% following its revenue beat and newly announced Saudi joint venture. Over the past year, total shareholder return rose an impressive 212.4%, reflecting both short-term excitement and strong long-term performance as the company expands globally and attracts fresh investor interest.

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Yet with the stock trading near its price target and some analysts calling shares fairly valued, the question remains: is there still room for upside, or has the market already priced in all that growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 25% Overvalued

Nextracker’s fair value in the most followed narrative calculates to $78.38, while the last close stands much higher at $98.28 per share. This disconnect highlights a valuation premium that warrants deeper examination of the assumptions driving analysts’ expectations.

Nextracker's global expansion of R&D facilities in the U.S., Brazil, and India, along with the partnership with UC Berkeley for solar technology research, is expected to reinforce its commitment to innovation and position the company as a leader in solar technology. This could impact long-term revenue and growth. The record backlog exceeding $4.5 billion, with continued strong demand and bookings, indicates excellent visibility and confidence in future revenue growth and provides a solid foundation for future financial performance.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious about what ambitious growth assumptions underlie this price call? The narrative factors in bold new expansion plans, aggressive revenue targets, and a premium multiple that hints at outsized future gains. Ready to discover the numbers that shape this headline valuation?

Result: Fair Value of $78.38 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, shifting trade policies or increased pricing pressure in international markets could challenge Nextracker’s growth outlook and affect its long-term profitability.

Find out about the key risks to this Nextracker narrative.

Another View: What Do the Numbers Say?

Taking a market-based lens, Nextracker’s price-to-earnings ratio stands at 25.2x, which is notably lower than the industry average of 30.7x and the peer average of 40.7x. It is also below the fair ratio of 34.9x, suggesting the stock may actually offer better value than headline prices imply. Could this discrepancy signal a potential opportunity, or does it reflect real risks the broader market sees?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Nextracker Narrative

If you want to dig into the data and challenge the consensus, you can quickly craft a personalized outlook and test your own thesis. Do it your way

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Nextracker.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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