The Bull Case For Intuitive Machines (LUNR) Could Change Following $9.8M Phase Two Government Contract Win

• In late July 2025, Intuitive Machines secured a US$9.8 million Phase Two government contract to advance its Orbital Transfer Vehicle through the Critical Design Review stage, setting the stage for manufacturing to commence.
• This award, from a non-NASA government entity, reflects the company’s efforts to widen its customer base and expand offerings beyond lunar surface delivery.
• We'll explore how this government contract boosts Intuitive Machines' push to diversify revenue sources and expand in-space mobility capabilities.

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Intuitive Machines Investment Narrative Recap

To be a shareholder in Intuitive Machines, you need to believe in the company's ability to expand its government and commercial customer base, while building a sustainable service model for in-space mobility. The new US$9.8 million government contract supports revenue diversification but does not significantly alter the fact that the company's profitability timeline and margin pressures remain the main short-term catalyst and risk, respectively.

One recent announcement particularly relevant to the latest contract is the up to US$10 million funding from the Texas Space Commission for lunar sample return programs, signaling growing external support for the company's infrastructure and data services expansion. Both the Texas and Orbital Transfer Vehicle deals reinforce the same near-term catalyst: broadening revenue streams to offset heavy investment and operational costs as Intuitive Machines scales.

On the flip side, investors should also be aware that the company’s recent higher operating losses, partly from increased SG&A expenses, mean ...

Read the full narrative on Intuitive Machines (it's free!)

Intuitive Machines' narrative projects $467.1 million revenue and $23.5 million earnings by 2028. This requires 29.1% yearly revenue growth and a $221.4 million earnings increase from the current earnings of -$197.9 million.

Uncover how Intuitive Machines' forecasts yield a $15.11 fair value, a 32% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Twenty community members from Simply Wall St gave fair value estimates between US$5.64 and US$56.73 per share, reflecting a broad range of views. While optimism exists around revenue growth, the continued pressure from operating losses and cash demands could shape future sentiment and results, so make sure to consider multiple viewpoints before deciding.

Explore 20 other fair value estimates on Intuitive Machines - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

Build Your Own Intuitive Machines Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Intuitive Machines research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Intuitive Machines research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Intuitive Machines' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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