FTAI Aviation Ltd. (NASDAQ:FTAI) Just Released Its Annual Earnings: Here's What Analysts Think

Last week saw the newest full-year earnings release from FTAI Aviation Ltd. (NASDAQ:FTAI), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. Revenue hit US$1.7b in line with forecasts, although the company reported a statutory loss per share of US$0.32 that was somewhat smaller than the analysts expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for FTAI Aviation

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from FTAI Aviation's ten analysts is for revenues of US$2.30b in 2025. This would reflect a major 32% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with FTAI Aviation forecast to report a statutory profit of US$4.97 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$2.34b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$5.63 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a real cut to EPS estimates.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$186, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values FTAI Aviation at US$300 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$100.00. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of FTAI Aviation'shistorical trends, as the 32% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 33% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 5.4% annually. So although FTAI Aviation is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$186, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for FTAI Aviation going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with FTAI Aviation .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.