Blue Bird Corporation (NASDAQ:BLBD) Full-Year Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

It's been a good week for Blue Bird Corporation (NASDAQ:BLBD) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest full-year results, and the shares gained 3.9% to US$52.74. Results overall were respectable, with statutory earnings of US$3.88 per share roughly in line with what the analysts had forecast. Revenues of US$1.5b came in 2.0% ahead of analyst predictions. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Blue Bird from seven analysts is for revenues of US$1.52b in 2026. If met, it would imply an okay 2.9% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to accumulate 4.7% to US$4.22. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.51b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.19 in 2026. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

View our latest analysis for Blue Bird

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at US$63.75. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Blue Bird analyst has a price target of US$76.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$49.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Blue Bird's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 2.9% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 16% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 5.3% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Blue Bird.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Blue Bird going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for Blue Bird that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.