Results: AeroVironment, Inc. Beat Earnings Expectations And Analysts Now Have New Forecasts

A week ago, AeroVironment, Inc. (NASDAQ:AVAV) came out with a strong set of quarterly numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. The company beat forecasts, with revenue of US$189m, some 2.1% above estimates, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) coming in at US$0.75, 45% ahead of expectations. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on AeroVironment after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for AeroVironment

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for AeroVironment from six analysts is for revenues of US$836.5m in 2025. If met, it would imply a notable 11% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 39% to US$2.92. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$815.2m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.90 in 2025. There doesn't appear to have been a major change in sentiment following the results, other than the slight bump in revenue estimates.

Even though revenue forecasts increased, there was no change to the consensus price target of US$224, suggesting the analysts are focused on earnings as the driver of value creation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values AeroVironment at US$245 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$210. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that AeroVironment is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of AeroVironment'shistorical trends, as the 15% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 17% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 2.8% per year. So although AeroVironment is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple AeroVironment analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for AeroVironment that you need to be mindful of.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.