AeroVironment, Inc. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

There's been a notable change in appetite for AeroVironment, Inc. (NASDAQ:AVAV) shares in the week since its quarterly report, with the stock down 20% to US$163. Results overall were not great, with earnings of US$0.27 per share falling drastically short of analyst expectations. Meanwhile revenues hit US$188m and were slightly better than forecasts. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on AeroVironment after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for AeroVironment

After the latest results, the seven analysts covering AeroVironment are now predicting revenues of US$823.5m in 2025. If met, this would reflect a notable 8.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 61% to US$2.80. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$828.0m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.82 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at US$231. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic AeroVironment analyst has a price target of US$245 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$219. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of AeroVironment'shistorical trends, as the 17% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 18% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 4.4% annually. So although AeroVironment is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$231, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple AeroVironment analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We also provide an overview of the AeroVironment Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.