The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. As with many other companies Art's-Way Manufacturing Co., Inc. (NASDAQ:ARTW) makes use of debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
Check out our latest analysis for Art's-Way Manufacturing
What Is Art's-Way Manufacturing's Net Debt?
As you can see below, Art's-Way Manufacturing had US$6.53m of debt at August 2024, down from US$7.30m a year prior. And it doesn't have much cash, so its net debt is about the same.
A Look At Art's-Way Manufacturing's Liabilities
The latest balance sheet data shows that Art's-Way Manufacturing had liabilities of US$9.06m due within a year, and liabilities of US$3.14m falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had US$5.1k in cash and US$2.97m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$9.23m.
When you consider that this deficiency exceeds the company's US$7.54m market capitalization, you might well be inclined to review the balance sheet intently. In the scenario where the company had to clean up its balance sheet quickly, it seems likely shareholders would suffer extensive dilution.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
Weak interest cover of 0.045 times and a disturbingly high net debt to EBITDA ratio of 7.3 hit our confidence in Art's-Way Manufacturing like a one-two punch to the gut. The debt burden here is substantial. Even worse, Art's-Way Manufacturing saw its EBIT tank 98% over the last 12 months. If earnings continue to follow that trajectory, paying off that debt load will be harder than convincing us to run a marathon in the rain. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is Art's-Way Manufacturing's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. During the last three years, Art's-Way Manufacturing burned a lot of cash. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.
Our View
To be frank both Art's-Way Manufacturing's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow and its track record of (not) growing its EBIT make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. And furthermore, its net debt to EBITDA also fails to instill confidence. We think the chances that Art's-Way Manufacturing has too much debt a very significant. To us, that makes the stock rather risky, like walking through a dog park with your eyes closed. But some investors may feel differently. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Art's-Way Manufacturing you should know about.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About NasdaqCM:ARTW
Art's-Way Manufacturing
Manufactures and sells agricultural equipment, specialized modular science and agricultural buildings in the United States and internationally.
Good value with adequate balance sheet.