Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For American Woodmark Corporation (NASDAQ:AMWD) After Its First-Quarter Results

American Woodmark Corporation (NASDAQ:AMWD) just released its latest quarterly report and things are not looking great. Results look to have been somewhat negative - revenue fell 3.4% short of analyst estimates at US$459m, and statutory earnings of US$1.89 per share missed forecasts by 3.6%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for American Woodmark

Taking into account the latest results, American Woodmark's four analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be US$1.82b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to shrink 6.4% to US$6.53 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.88b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$7.52 in 2025. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a real cut to earnings per share estimates.

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of US$104, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on American Woodmark's valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic American Woodmark analyst has a price target of US$112 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$96.00. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that American Woodmark is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that American Woodmark's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 0.7% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 4.2% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.3% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that American Woodmark is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at US$104, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple American Woodmark analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also view our analysis of American Woodmark's balance sheet, and whether we think American Woodmark is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.