Analysts Are Updating Their American Woodmark Corporation (NASDAQ:AMWD) Estimates After Its Annual Results

Last week, you might have seen that American Woodmark Corporation (NASDAQ:AMWD) released its annual result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 7.3% to US$89.04 in the past week. American Woodmark reported US$1.8b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$7.15 beat expectations, being 3.8% higher than what the analysts expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

See our latest analysis for American Woodmark

Taking into account the latest results, American Woodmark's five analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be US$1.87b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to rise 2.5% to US$7.52. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$1.87b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$8.10 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$104, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic American Woodmark analyst has a price target of US$116 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$99.00. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that American Woodmark is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that American Woodmark's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 1.3% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 4.8% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.7% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that American Woodmark is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for American Woodmark. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that American Woodmark's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on American Woodmark. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for American Woodmark going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You can also view our analysis of American Woodmark's balance sheet, and whether we think American Woodmark is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.