Stock Analysis

The one-year decline in earnings might be taking its toll on Western Alliance Bancorporation (NYSE:WAL) shareholders as stock falls 5.3% over the past week

NYSE:WAL
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Unfortunately, investing is risky - companies can and do go bankrupt. But if you pick the right business to buy shares in, you can make more than you can lose. Take, for example Western Alliance Bancorporation (NYSE:WAL). Its share price is already up an impressive 107% in the last twelve months. In more good news, the share price has risen 10% in thirty days. Unfortunately the longer term returns are not so good, with the stock falling 34% in the last three years.

Although Western Alliance Bancorporation has shed US$373m from its market cap this week, let's take a look at its longer term fundamental trends and see if they've driven returns.

Check out our latest analysis for Western Alliance Bancorporation

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During the last year, Western Alliance Bancorporation actually saw its earnings per share drop 33%.

Given the share price gain, we doubt the market is measuring progress with EPS. Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

We think that the revenue growth of 3.4% could have some investors interested. We do see some companies suppress earnings in order to accelerate revenue growth.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
NYSE:WAL Earnings and Revenue Growth April 4th 2024

Western Alliance Bancorporation is a well known stock, with plenty of analyst coverage, suggesting some visibility into future growth. If you are thinking of buying or selling Western Alliance Bancorporation stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst consensus estimates for future profits.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Western Alliance Bancorporation the TSR over the last 1 year was 114%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Western Alliance Bancorporation shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 114% over the last year. That's including the dividend. Since the one-year TSR is better than the five-year TSR (the latter coming in at 9% per year), it would seem that the stock's performance has improved in recent times. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Western Alliance Bancorporation that you should be aware of.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Western Alliance Bancorporation is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.