Triumph Financial (TFIN): Valuation Check After Creative Planning’s New Position Spurs Share Price Rebound

Triumph Financial, Inc. saw its stock jump after a regulatory filing showed that institutional investor Creative Planning opened a new position, a move that is often interpreted as signaling fresh confidence in a bank's long term trajectory.

See our latest analysis for Triumph Financial.

The buying interest from Creative Planning comes as Triumph’s share price has rebounded in the short term, with an 11.85% 7 day share price return and 12.65% 30 day share price return. However, this sits against a much weaker year to date share price return and a 1 year total shareholder return of negative 41.39%, suggesting recent momentum is building from a low base rather than capping off a long winning streak.

If Creative Planning’s move has you rethinking where capital could work harder, it may also be worth exploring fast growing stocks with high insider ownership as another source of fresh ideas beyond the banking space.

With the stock still down sharply over the past year but trading just shy of analyst price targets, the question now is whether Triumph Financial is quietly undervalued or if the market is already pricing in a turnaround.

Most Popular Narrative: 1% Overvalued

With Triumph Financial’s last close near the narrative fair value, the current price leaves little room for disappointment if execution falls short.

The analysts have a consensus price target of $60.5 for Triumph Financial based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $602.4 million, earnings will come to $131.3 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 14.0x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.8%.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what kind of revenue climb, margin reset, and earnings leap are baked into that target, and why the future multiple still tops the sector? The full narrative lays out the bold assumptions driving this tight valuation call.

Result: Fair Value of $60.50 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, these expectations could unravel if freight volumes weaken materially or tech investments fail to scale, which could squeeze margins and delay the anticipated earnings ramp.

Find out about the key risks to this Triumph Financial narrative.

Build Your Own Triumph Financial Narrative

If you are not fully aligned with this outlook or would rather rely on your own work, you can build a custom view in just a few minutes, starting with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Triumph Financial research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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