Is JPMorgan’s Recent Tech Investment Run a Signal for Investors in 2025?

Trying to decide what to do with JPMorgan Chase stock right now? You are not alone. With big banks often grabbing headlines, folks are watching every market move, and JPMorgan has certainly been on an interesting run. After climbing 1.0% over the past week and zooming up 25.2% year to date, the stock is now sitting at $300.44. Long-term holders have seen even bigger rewards, with returns of 38.0% over the last year and an astonishing 248.9% over the last five years. Of course, things are never steady in banking in the short term. The past month saw a -4.1% dip as investors digested the latest news swirling around the financial sector.

Some of this movement can be traced to recent news about ongoing investments in digital banking and tech-driven strategies, as well as renewed confidence from Wall Street in the overall health of large US banks. While not every headline shakes the share price, upbeat sentiment around regulatory stability and growing interest in AI adoption by major banks have played a role in how investors view both risk and upside potential in the sector.

When it comes to valuation, JPMorgan currently earns a score of 2 out of 6 on our benchmark for finding undervalued companies. That means it checks the box as undervalued on two of the six main measures we apply. This is a mixed but potentially intriguing picture for value-focused investors right now. Up next, we will break down these standard valuation approaches in detail, and later, we will dig into a smarter way to think about what JPMorgan's share price really reflects.

JPMorgan Chase scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: JPMorgan Chase Excess Returns Analysis

The Excess Returns valuation model evaluates how much value a company generates above its cost of equity by looking at how efficiently it reinvests its earnings back into the business. This method focuses on return on invested capital, growth projections, and compares the company’s profitability to what shareholders require for taking on equity risk.

For JPMorgan Chase, the average return on equity is a robust 16.62%. The bank's Book Value sits at $124.96 per share, projected to grow to a Stable Book Value of $135.60 per share, based on estimates from 14 analysts. Analyst forecasts suggest a Stable EPS of $22.53 per share, while the Cost of Equity stands at $11.13 per share. This results in an annual Excess Return of $11.40 per share, which indicates that JPMorgan is expected to generate significant value above what investors typically demand for holding its stock.

Based on the Excess Returns model, the estimated intrinsic value for JPMorgan Chase is $357.74 per share. Compared to the current share price of $300.44, this points to a 16.0% discount, suggesting the stock is undervalued at today’s levels.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for JPMorgan Chase.

Our Excess Returns analysis suggests JPMorgan Chase is undervalued by 16.0%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover more undervalued stocks.

Approach 2: JPMorgan Chase Price vs Earnings

For established, profitable companies like JPMorgan Chase, the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is a trusted valuation tool because it puts a clear figure on how much investors are willing to pay today for each dollar of company earnings. This metric works particularly well for large banks, since their profits tend to be more stable and transparent than those in sectors with heavy R&D or volatile business cycles.

It is important to note, though, that a “normal” or “fair” PE ratio is shaped by expectations for future growth and the level of risk investors see ahead. Higher growth prospects or lower risk can justify paying a higher multiple, while slower-growing or riskier companies usually trade at a lower PE.

JPMorgan Chase currently trades at a PE ratio of 14.43x. That is above the industry average of 11.18x and also higher than its peer group's 12.86x, which may initially look expensive. However, Simply Wall St's Fair Ratio for JPMorgan Chase, which considers the company’s earnings growth outlook, profitability, scale, industry and risk profile, stands at 15.55x. The Fair Ratio is a more meaningful benchmark than just comparing to peers because it adjusts for factors unique to JPMorgan that can affect what investors should reasonably pay.

With the current PE so close to the Fair Ratio, JPMorgan’s valuation looks balanced at current prices.

Result: ABOUT RIGHT

PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your JPMorgan Chase Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Let us introduce you to Narratives. In simple terms, a Narrative is your personal story or perspective about a company like JPMorgan Chase, where you connect your view of its future (such as revenue growth, margins, and fair value) to a clear, numbers-based financial forecast.

Narratives let you go beyond static ratios by linking the company's business story to a fair value estimate grounded in your own assumptions. They are designed to be an accessible, interactive tool right within Simply Wall St’s Community page, where millions of investors already share and discuss their perspectives.

By choosing or building your own Narrative, you can see how your expectations for JPMorgan's future stack up against the market. If your Narrative’s fair value is above the current price, that suggests a buying opportunity. If it is below, it might be time to reconsider. The best part is that Narratives update dynamically as new information such as earnings or breaking news comes in, so your investment thinking stays current and relevant.

For example, one Narrative might forecast rapid fintech-driven growth and a $350.00 fair value. Another could factor in rising expenses and assign just $247.02, demonstrating how different viewpoints can lead to very different conclusions from the same set of facts.

For JPMorgan Chase, however, we'll make it really easy for you with previews of two leading JPMorgan Chase Narratives:

🐂 JPMorgan Chase Bull Case

Fair Value: $326.43

Undervalued by 7.96%

Forecast Revenue Growth: 6.02%

• Bullish analysts point to broad-based growth in wealth management, payments, and digital banking, which is driving higher fee revenue and improved margins.
• Continued investment in new technology and a resilient, diversified business model positions JPMorgan for sustained earnings, margin expansion, and an ability to navigate different market cycles.
• Despite competitive threats and regulatory challenges, strong revenue momentum is expected to support long-term value creation, with analysts targeting a price above current levels.

🐻 JPMorgan Chase Bear Case

Fair Value: $247.02

Overvalued by 21.65%

Forecast Revenue Growth: 4.08%

• Bearish analysts highlight increased credit loss allowances and rising expenses as potential strains on future earnings and net margins.
• Anticipated rate cuts and a cautious investment banking outlook may pressure revenue from net interest income and advisory fees.
• Despite underlying operational strengths, the bearish view questions if recent outperformance is sustainable and sees current market expectations as too high relative to risk.

Do you think there's more to the story for JPMorgan Chase? Create your own Narrative to let the Community know!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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