Reassessing Atlantic Union Bankshares (AUB) Valuation After Raymond James’ Downgrade and Earnings Outlook Cut

Atlantic Union Bankshares (AUB) just drew fresh scrutiny after Raymond James cut its rating, pointing to softer yields on new loans and weaker Sandy Spring accretion that collectively trim the bank’s earnings outlook.

See our latest analysis for Atlantic Union Bankshares.

The Raymond James downgrade appears to have checked optimism that had been building after the Sandy Spring deal. A 1 month share price return of 4.85% has given way to a weaker year to date share price return of 6.93% and a 1 year total shareholder return of 15.31%.

If this shift in sentiment has you reassessing your watchlist, it could be a smart moment to explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership as potential fresh ideas beyond regional banks.

With shares now trading at a double digit discount to both intrinsic value estimates and analyst targets after the downgrade, the real question is whether Atlantic Union Bankshares is a mispriced regional compounder or if the market already sees limited upside.

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 17.2% Undervalued

With Atlantic Union Bankshares last closing at $34.39 versus a narrative fair value near the low $40s, the storyline leans firmly toward mispricing driven by future growth.

The successful integration of Sandy Spring Bank and the sale of $2 billion in commercial real estate loans have reduced risk concentrations, freed up lending capacity, and expanded the company's customer base in markets with the lowest unemployment nationally, supporting better credit performance, new fee income, and future earnings upside.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see how loan growth, widening margins, and surging earnings all get baked into one bold fair value call? The full narrative lays out an aggressive earnings ramp, a sharply higher profitability profile, and a future valuation multiple that might surprise anyone used to traditional bank benchmarks.

Result: Fair Value of $41.56 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent digital competition or integration missteps on recent acquisitions could erode margins and derail the growth trajectory implied in that fair value.

Find out about the key risks to this Atlantic Union Bankshares narrative.

Another Angle on Valuation

On earnings, Atlantic Union Bankshares looks far less forgiving. Its 23.6x price to earnings ratio sits well above the US Banks industry at 11.7x and even its own 21.6x fair ratio, suggesting limited margin for error if growth or integration stumbles.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Atlantic Union Bankshares Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a personalized view in minutes, starting with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Atlantic Union Bankshares research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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