UMB Financial Corporation Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For This Year

UMB Financial Corporation (NASDAQ:UMBF) just released its quarterly report and things are looking bullish. The company beat expectations with revenues of US$396m arriving 2.7% ahead of forecasts. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) were US$2.07, 5.7% ahead of estimates. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for UMB Financial

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from UMB Financial's four analysts is for revenues of US$1.59b in 2024. This would reflect a satisfactory 7.1% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to grow 10% to US$8.58. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.57b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$8.12 in 2024. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

The consensus price target rose 15% to US$112, suggesting that higher earnings estimates flow through to the stock's valuation as well. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on UMB Financial, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$120 and the most bearish at US$98.00 per share. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that UMB Financial is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that UMB Financial's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 15% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 8.6% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.3% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect UMB Financial to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around UMB Financial's earnings potential next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple UMB Financial analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for UMB Financial that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com