Timberland Bancorp (NasdaqGM:TSBK) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of TSBK when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

TSBK ($26.84) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] ($69.04)

TSBK fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	3/6
Future Growth	0/6
Past Performance	2/6
Financial Health	6/6
Dividends	4/6

TSBK Stock Overview

Timberland Bancorp, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Timberland Bank that provides various community banking services in Washington.

Rewards

Trading at 61.1% below our estimate of its fair value

Pays a reliable dividend of 3.28%

Risk Analysis

No risks detected for TSBK from our risk checks.

Timberland Bancorp Competitors

Northeast Community Bancorp

NasdaqCM:NECB

US$189.6m

Territorial Bancorp

NasdaqGS:TBNK

US$193.2m

ESSA Bancorp

NasdaqGS:ESSA

US$184.7m

Ocwen Financial

NYSE:OCN

US$255.1m

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Timberland Bancorp
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$26.84
52 Week High	US$29.92
52 Week Low	US$24.05
Beta	1.06
1 Month Change	9.28%
3 Month Change	6.25%
1 Year Change	-7.38%
3 Year Change	9.55%
5 Year Change	-0.63%
Change since IPO	270.21%

Recent News & Updates

Aug 10

Timberland Bancorp goes ex-dividend tomorrow

Timberland Bancorp (NASDAQ:TSBK) had declared $0.22/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous. Payable Aug. 26; for shareholders of record Aug. 12; ex-div Aug. 11. See TSBK Dividend Scorecard, Yield Chart, & Dividend Growth.

Jul 27

Timberland Bancorp GAAP EPS of $0.69, revenue of $17.08M

Timberland Bancorp press release (NASDAQ:TSBK): Q3 GAAP EPS of $0.69. Revenue of $17.08M (-2.0% Y/Y).

May 11

Timberland Bancorp: A 100 Bp Interest Rate Increase Will Boost The EPS By 20%

Timberland Bancorp is active in Washington State, running a very conservative balance sheet with almost no loan write-offs. The balance sheet is exceptionally liquid with almost 40% of the balance sheet invested in cash and investment securities. I'm charmed by the strong balance sheet, the 10x earnings multiple and the premium of less than 10% to the tangible book value. For every 100bp in interest increases, TSBK will see its EPS increase by $0.50 per year.

Shareholder Returns

	TSBK	US Mortgage	US Market
7D	3.2%	6.9%	4.5%
1Y	-7.4%	-18.0%	-8.9%

Return vs Industry: TSBK exceeded the US Mortgage industry which returned -21.1% over the past year.

Return vs Market: TSBK exceeded the US Market which returned -9.6% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is TSBK's price volatile compared to industry and market?
TSBK volatility
TSBK Average Weekly Movement	2.0%
Mortgage Industry Average Movement	3.5%
Market Average Movement	7.6%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	16.8%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	3.1%

Stable Share Price: TSBK is less volatile than 75% of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 2% a week.

Volatility Over Time: TSBK's weekly volatility (2%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1915	282	Mike Sand	https://www.timberlandbank.com

Timberland Bancorp, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Timberland Bank that provides various community banking services in Washington. It offers various deposit products, including money market deposit, checking, and regular savings accounts, as well as certificates of deposit. The company also provides one-to four-family residential, multi-family, commercial real estate, construction, custom and owner/builder construction, speculative one- to four-family construction, commercial construction, multi-family construction, land development construction, and land development loans.

Timberland Bancorp Fundamentals Summary

How do Timberland Bancorp's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
TSBK fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$221.42m
Earnings (TTM)	US$22.57m
Revenue (TTM)	US$65.76m

9.8x

P/E Ratio

1.0x

P/B Ratio

Is TSBK overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
TSBK income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$65.76m
Cost of Revenue	US$0
Gross Profit	US$65.76m
Other Expenses	US$43.19m
Earnings	US$22.57m

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	2.74
Gross Margin	100.00%
Net Profit Margin	34.32%
Debt/Equity Ratio	0%

How did TSBK perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

3.3%

Current Dividend Yield

32%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is TSBK undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TSBK?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for TSBK. This is calculated by dividing TSBK's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is TSBK's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$221.42m

TSBK key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	n/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	n/a
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does TSBK's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

TSBK PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for TSBK vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	9.5x
NECB Northeast Community Bancorp	13.6x	28.1%	US$189.6m
TBNK Territorial Bancorp	11.3x	-12.2%	US$193.2m
ESSA ESSA Bancorp	10.2x	4.0%	US$184.7m
OCN Ocwen Financial	2.9x	-26.1%	US$255.1m
TSBK Timberland Bancorp	9.8x	n/a	US$221.4m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: TSBK is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.8x) compared to the peer average (9.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does TSBK's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Mortgage Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: TSBK is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.8x) compared to the US Mortgage industry average (11.6x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is TSBK's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

TSBK PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	9.8x
Fair PE Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate TSBK's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of TSBK when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: TSBK ($26.84) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($69.04)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TSBK is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.

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Future Growth

How is Timberland Bancorp forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 0 analysts?

Future Growth Score

0/6

Future Growth Score 0/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

11.2%

Forecasted Banks industry annual growth in earnings

In this section we usually present revenue and earnings growth projections based on the consensus estimates of professional analysts to help investors understand the company’s ability to generate profit. But as Timberland Bancorp has not provided enough past data and has no analyst forecast, its future earnings cannot be reliably calculated by extrapolating past data or using analyst predictions.

This is quite a rare situation as 97% of companies covered by SimplyWall St do have past financial data.

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Examine whether Timberland Bancorp is trading at an attractive price based on how much it is expected to earn in the future, and relative to its industry peers and the wider market.

Past Performance

How has Timberland Bancorp performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

2/6

Past Performance Score 2/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

12.4%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: TSBK has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: TSBK's current net profit margins (34.3%) are lower than last year (40.1%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: TSBK's earnings have grown by 12.4% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: TSBK's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: TSBK had negative earnings growth (-19.2%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Mortgage industry average (3.1%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: TSBK's Return on Equity (10.5%) is considered low.

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Financial Health

How is Timberland Bancorp's financial position? (This company is analysed differently as a bank or financial institution)

Financial Health Score

6/6

Financial Health Score 6/6

Asset Level
Allowance for Bad Loans
Low Risk Liabilities
Loan Level
Low Risk Deposits
Level of Bad Loans

Financial Position Analysis

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Balance Sheet

Financial Institutions Analysis

Asset Level: TSBK's Assets to Equity ratio (8.8x) is low.

Allowance for Bad Loans: TSBK has a sufficient allowance for bad loans (586%).

Low Risk Liabilities: 99% of TSBK's liabilities are made up of primarily low risk sources of funding.

Loan Level: TSBK has an appropriate level of Loans to Assets ratio (58%).

Low Risk Deposits: TSBK's Loans to Deposits ratio (65%) is appropriate.

Level of Bad Loans: TSBK has an appropriate level of bad loans (0.2%).

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Dividend

What is Timberland Bancorp current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

4/6

Dividend Score 4/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

3.28%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: TSBK's dividend (3.28%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.47%).

High Dividend: TSBK's dividend (3.28%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (3.96%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: TSBK's dividends per share have been stable in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: TSBK's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.

Current Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonably low payout ratio (31.8%), TSBK's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.

Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: Insufficient data to determine if a dividend will be paid in 3 years or that it will be covered by earnings.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

15.9yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Mike Sand (68 yo)

18.92yrs

Tenure

US$684,669

Compensation

Mr. Michael R. Sand, also known as Mike, had been the President of Timberland BanCorp. Inc. and its subsidiary Timberland Bank (also known as Timberland Savings Bank) since January 23, 2003 until January 2...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Mike's total compensation ($USD684.67K) is below average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD1.67M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Mike's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: TSBK's management team is seasoned and experienced (15.9 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: TSBK's board of directors are seasoned and experienced ( 17.5 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/16 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/16 00:00
Earnings	2022/06/30
Annual Earnings	2021/09/30