Results: TriCo Bancshares Beat Earnings Expectations And Analysts Now Have New Forecasts

Investors in TriCo Bancshares (NASDAQ:TCBK) had a good week, as its shares rose 3.4% to close at US$43.75 following the release of its third-quarter results. Revenues were US$108m, approximately in line with expectations, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) performed substantially better. EPS of US$1.04 were also better than expected, beating analyst predictions by 14%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on TriCo Bancshares after the latest results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from TriCo Bancshares' five analysts is for revenues of US$443.3m in 2026. This would reflect a solid 11% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to step up 10% to US$3.95. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$441.0m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.75 in 2026. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on TriCo Bancshares' earnings potential following these results.

See our latest analysis for TriCo Bancshares

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$49.33, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values TriCo Bancshares at US$55.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$46.00. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's clear from the latest estimates that TriCo Bancshares' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 8.7% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 6.7% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 8.1% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that TriCo Bancshares is expected to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards TriCo Bancshares following these results. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$49.33, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for TriCo Bancshares going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We also provide an overview of the TriCo Bancshares Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.