Texas Capital Bancshares (TCBI): Revisiting Valuation After a Strong Year‑to‑Date Share Price Gain

Texas Capital Bancshares (TCBI) has quietly rewarded patient investors this year, with the stock up about 22% year to date and nearly 10% over the past month despite a choppy regional banking backdrop.

See our latest analysis for Texas Capital Bancshares.

At around $93.44 per share, the bank’s roughly 22% year to date share price return and solid 3 year total shareholder return above 60% suggest steadily improving sentiment as investors warm to its earnings growth and perceived credit risk profile.

If Texas Capital’s run has you rethinking your financials exposure, it is a good time to explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership for other potential standouts.

With shares now trading just shy of analyst targets but still at a sizeable intrinsic value discount, the key question is clear: is Texas Capital Bancshares still undervalued, or has the market already priced in its next leg of growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 20% Undervalued

Texas Capital Bancshares last closed at $93.44, while the most widely followed narrative pegs fair value closer to $93.64, implying modest upside with a still notable intrinsic discount.

The ongoing build out of fee based businesses such as investment banking, trading, and treasury products is rapidly growing non interest income streams, making overall earnings more resilient and scalable. Early success in cross selling wealth management and other alternative investment solutions to newly acquired high quality commercial clients is anticipated to increase non interest revenue and further deepen client relationships, which can smooth earnings through economic cycles.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see why a traditional regional bank is being valued more like a scalable platform business? The growth mix, margin path, and future earnings multiple behind this fair value call are anything but boring. Curious which assumptions really move the needle in this story? Dive in and follow the full narrative before the next reset.

Result: Fair Value of $93.64 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, rising credit costs and the risk of slower digital adoption could quickly challenge today’s upbeat valuation narrative if profitability disappoints.

Find out about the key risks to this Texas Capital Bancshares narrative.

Another Angle on Valuation

While the narrative suggests Texas Capital is around 20% undervalued, its current price to earnings ratio of 15.1 times tells a tougher story versus the US banks average of 11.6 times and a fair ratio of 12.7 times. This hints at less obvious upside and more rerating risk if growth cools.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Texas Capital Bancshares Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a personalized view in just minutes by using Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Texas Capital Bancshares.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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