QCR Holdings, Inc. Just Missed Revenue By 5.2%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Shareholders might have noticed that QCR Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:QCRH) filed its yearly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.1% to US$56.95 in the past week. Results look mixed - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$275m, statutory earnings were in line with expectations, at US$6.20 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for QCR Holdings

After the latest results, the five analysts covering QCR Holdings are now predicting revenues of US$297.9m in 2022. If met, this would reflect a solid 8.3% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to shrink 6.7% to US$5.91 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$327.6m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$6.03 in 2022. So it looks like the analysts have become a bit less optimistic after the latest results announcement, with revenues expected to fall even as the company is supposed to maintain EPS.

The consensus has reconfirmed its price target of US$68.60, showing that the analysts don't expect weaker sales expectations next year to have a material impact on QCR Holdings' market value. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values QCR Holdings at US$72.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$66.00. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting QCR Holdings is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that QCR Holdings' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2022 expected to display 8.3% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 17% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 4.9% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that QCR Holdings is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. They also downgraded their revenue estimates, although industry data suggests that QCR Holdings' revenues are expected to grow faster than the wider industry. Even so, earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at US$68.60, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on QCR Holdings. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for QCR Holdings going out to 2023, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also view our analysis of QCR Holdings' balance sheet, and whether we think QCR Holdings is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.