Northfield Bancorp, Inc. (Staten Island, NY) (NASDAQ:NFBK) defied analyst predictions to release its quarterly results, which were ahead of market expectations. Northfield Bancorp (Staten Island NY) delivered a significant beat to revenue and earnings per share (EPS) expectations, with sales hitting US$40m, some 11% above indicated. Statutory EPS were US$0.38, an impressive 43% ahead of forecasts. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Following last week's earnings report, Northfield Bancorp (Staten Island NY)'s four analysts are forecasting 2021 revenues to be US$150.0m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to grow 15% to US$1.19. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$143.4m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.04 in 2021. There's been a pretty noticeable increase in sentiment, with the analysts upgrading revenues and making a nice increase in earnings per share in particular.
With these upgrades, we're not surprised to see that the analysts have lifted their price target 6.9% to US$17.50per share. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Northfield Bancorp (Staten Island NY) at US$19.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$17.00. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Northfield Bancorp (Staten Island NY) is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast annualised revenue decline of 1.7% by the end of 2021. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 4.8% over the last five years. Yet aggregate analyst estimates for other companies in the industry suggest that industry revenues are forecast to decline 5.1% per year. So it's pretty clear that Northfield Bancorp (Staten Island NY)'s revenues are expected to shrink slower than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Northfield Bancorp (Staten Island NY) following these results. Fortunately, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates sales are expected to perform better than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Northfield Bancorp (Staten Island NY) going out to 2023, and you can see them free on our platform here..
It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for Northfield Bancorp (Staten Island NY) that you need to take into consideration.
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