Northfield Bancorp (Staten Island NY) (NasdaqGS:NFBK) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of NFBK when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

NFBK ($12.92) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] ($21.13)

NFBK fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	4/6
Future Growth	0/6
Past Performance	5/6
Financial Health	6/6
Dividends	4/6

NFBK Stock Overview

Northfield Bancorp, Inc. (Staten Island, NY) operates as the bank holding company for Northfield Bank that provides various banking services primarily to individuals and corporate customers.

Rewards

Trading at 38.9% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings grew by 29.3% over the past year

Risk Analysis

Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 3.1% per year for the next 3 years

Unstable dividend track record

Northfield Bancorp (Staten Island NY) Competitors

Luther Burbank

NasdaqGS:LBC

US$685.1m

Hingham Institution for Savings

NasdaqGM:HIFS

US$604.9m

Kearny Financial

NasdaqGS:KRNY

US$747.0m

Bridgewater Bancshares

NasdaqCM:BWB

US$459.4m

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Northfield Bancorp (Staten Island NY)
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$12.92
52 Week High	US$18.41
52 Week Low	US$11.87
Beta	0.68
1 Month Change	-1.52%
3 Month Change	-12.29%
1 Year Change	-22.59%
3 Year Change	-17.23%
5 Year Change	-24.67%
Change since IPO	73.45%

Shareholder Returns

	NFBK	US Mortgage	US Market
7D	7.7%	7.6%	6.6%
1Y	-22.6%	-37.6%	-18.4%

Return vs Industry: NFBK exceeded the US Mortgage industry which returned -37.6% over the past year.

Return vs Market: NFBK underperformed the US Market which returned -18.4% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is NFBK's price volatile compared to industry and market?
NFBK volatility
NFBK Average Weekly Movement	3.5%
Mortgage Industry Average Movement	3.7%
Market Average Movement	8.1%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	16.6%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	3.2%

Stable Share Price: NFBK is less volatile than 75% of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 4% a week.

Volatility Over Time: NFBK's weekly volatility (4%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1887	385	Steve Klein	https://www.enorthfield.com

Northfield Bancorp, Inc. (Staten Island, NY) operates as the bank holding company for Northfield Bank that provides various banking services primarily to individuals and corporate customers. It accepts various deposits products, including certificates of deposit, passbook, statement, and money market savings accounts; transaction deposit accounts comprising negotiable orders of withdrawal accounts, and interest and non-interest-bearing checking accounts; individual retirement accounts; and brokered deposits. The company also offers various loans comprising multifamily and other commercial real estate loans, construction and land loans, commercial and industrial loans, one-to-four family residential real estate loans, and home equity loans and lines of credit.

Northfield Bancorp (Staten Island NY) Fundamentals Summary

How do Northfield Bancorp (Staten Island NY)'s earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
NFBK fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$631.74m
Earnings (TTM)	US$66.10m
Revenue (TTM)	US$169.28m

9.6x

P/E Ratio

0.9x

P/B Ratio

Is NFBK overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
NFBK income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$169.28m
Cost of Revenue	US$0
Gross Profit	US$169.28m
Other Expenses	US$103.18m
Earnings	US$66.10m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	1.35
Gross Margin	100.00%
Net Profit Margin	39.05%
Debt/Equity Ratio	56.0%

How did NFBK perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

4.0%

Current Dividend Yield

38%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is NFBK undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NFBK?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for NFBK. This is calculated by dividing NFBK's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is NFBK's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$631.74m

NFBK key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	n/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	n/a
PEG Ratio	-3.1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does NFBK's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

NFBK PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for NFBK vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	9.3x
LBC Luther Burbank	7.4x	-6.5%	US$685.1m
HIFS Hingham Institution for Savings	9.6x	n/a	US$604.9m
KRNY Kearny Financial	10x	-14.4%	US$747.0m
BWB Bridgewater Bancshares	10.2x	11.7%	US$459.4m
NFBK Northfield Bancorp (Staten Island NY)	9.6x	-3.1%	US$631.7m

Forward PE

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: NFBK is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.6x) compared to the peer average (9.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does NFBK's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Mortgage Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: NFBK is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.6x) compared to the US Mortgage industry average (11.3x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NFBK's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NFBK PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	9.6x
Fair PE Ratio	10.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: NFBK is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.3x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of NFBK when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: NFBK ($12.92) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($21.13)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NFBK is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: NFBK's earnings are forecast to decline next year, so we can't calculate its PEG ratio.

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Future Growth

How is Northfield Bancorp (Staten Island NY) forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 4 analysts?

Future Growth Score

0/6

Future Growth Score 0/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

-3.1%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: NFBK's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-3.1% per year).

Earnings vs Market: NFBK's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-3.1% per year).

High Growth Earnings: NFBK's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: NFBK's revenue (0.4% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (8.4% per year).

High Growth Revenue: NFBK's revenue (0.4% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: NFBK's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (8%).

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Past Performance

How has Northfield Bancorp (Staten Island NY) performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

5/6

Past Performance Score 5/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

17.7%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: NFBK has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: NFBK's current net profit margins (39.1%) are higher than last year (33.7%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: NFBK's earnings have grown by 17.7% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: NFBK's earnings growth over the past year (29.3%) exceeds its 5-year average (17.7% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: NFBK earnings growth over the past year (29.3%) exceeded the Mortgage industry 6.7%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: NFBK's Return on Equity (9.2%) is considered low.

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Financial Health

How is Northfield Bancorp (Staten Island NY)'s financial position? (This company is analysed differently as a bank or financial institution)

Financial Health Score

6/6

Financial Health Score 6/6

Asset Level
Allowance for Bad Loans
Low Risk Liabilities
Loan Level
Low Risk Deposits
Level of Bad Loans

Financial Position Analysis

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Balance Sheet

Financial Institutions Analysis

Asset Level: NFBK's Assets to Equity ratio (7.7x) is low.

Allowance for Bad Loans: NFBK has a sufficient allowance for bad loans (481%).

Low Risk Liabilities: 90% of NFBK's liabilities are made up of primarily low risk sources of funding.

Loan Level: NFBK has an appropriate level of Loans to Assets ratio (70%).

Low Risk Deposits: NFBK's Loans to Deposits ratio (90%) is appropriate.

Level of Bad Loans: NFBK has an appropriate level of bad loans (0.2%).

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Dividend

What is Northfield Bancorp (Staten Island NY) current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

4/6

Dividend Score 4/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

4.02%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: NFBK's dividend (4.02%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.57%).

High Dividend: NFBK's dividend (4.02%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4.24%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: NFBK's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: NFBK's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.

Current Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonably low payout ratio (37.6%), NFBK's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.

Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: NFBK's dividends in 3 years are forecast to be well covered by earnings (43.5% payout ratio).

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

7.0yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Steve Klein (55 yo)

9.33yrs

Tenure

US$1,466,249

Compensation

Mr. Steven M. Klein, also known as Steve, CPA, has been the President of Northfield Bancorp, Inc. (Staten Island, NY) and Northfield Bank since February 01, 2013. He has been Chief Executive Officer of Nor...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Steve's total compensation ($USD1.47M) is below average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD4.02M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Steve's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: NFBK's management team is seasoned and experienced (7 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: NFBK's board of directors are considered experienced (8.8 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/06/26 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/06/24 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31