Heritage Commerce Future Growth

Future criteria checks 1/6

Heritage Commerce is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 7.8% and 6.4% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 8% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 6.9% in 3 years.

Key information

7.8%

Earnings growth rate

8.0%

EPS growth rate

Banks earnings growth	10.7%
Revenue growth rate	6.4%
Future return on equity	6.9%
Analyst coverage	Good
Last updated	18 Dec 2024

Recent future growth updates

Heritage Commerce Corp (NASDAQ:HTBK) Just Reported Third-Quarter Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?

Oct 27

Heritage Commerce Corp Just Missed EPS By 6.4%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Apr 28

Recent updates

Heritage Commerce's (NASDAQ:HTBK) Dividend Will Be $0.13

Oct 29

Heritage Commerce Corp (NASDAQ:HTBK) Just Reported Third-Quarter Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?

Oct 27

Heritage Commerce's (NASDAQ:HTBK) Dividend Will Be $0.13

Jul 30

Heritage Commerce (NASDAQ:HTBK) Is Paying Out A Dividend Of $0.13

May 02

Heritage Commerce Corp Just Missed EPS By 6.4%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Apr 28

Heritage Commerce: Dividend Yield And Capital Upside Supported By Rising Interest Rates

Apr 25

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NasdaqGS:HTBK - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
Date	Revenue	Earnings	Free Cash Flow	Cash from Op	Avg. No. Analysts
12/31/2026	195	50	N/A	N/A	4
12/31/2025	180	44	N/A	N/A	4
12/31/2024	170	41	N/A	N/A	4
9/30/2024	169	43	17	19	N/A
6/30/2024	175	49	28	30	N/A
3/31/2024	181	56	48	50	N/A
12/31/2023	191	64	71	73	N/A
9/30/2023	202	72	103	105	N/A
6/30/2023	204	74	103	104	N/A
3/31/2023	200	73	82	83	N/A
12/31/2022	189	67	69	70	N/A
9/30/2022	177	60	59	60	N/A
6/30/2022	168	55	62	62	N/A
3/31/2022	161	49	63	63	N/A
12/31/2021	159	48	57	57	N/A
9/30/2021	155	45	61	61	N/A
6/30/2021	150	43	51	53	N/A
3/31/2021	149	45	56	58	N/A
12/31/2020	139	35	54	57	N/A
9/30/2020	139	29	50	52	N/A
6/30/2020	137	29	57	59	N/A
3/31/2020	135	30	46	47	N/A
12/31/2019	141	40	50	50	N/A
9/30/2019	138	48	48	48	N/A
6/30/2019	139	49	49	50	N/A
3/31/2019	130	39	49	49	N/A
12/31/2018	124	35	48	49	N/A
9/30/2018	118	23	46	46	N/A
6/30/2018	111	20	N/A	41	N/A
3/31/2018	113	26	N/A	41	N/A
12/31/2017	111	24	N/A	41	N/A
9/30/2017	108	30	N/A	37	N/A
6/30/2017	104	27	N/A	28	N/A
3/31/2017	102	26	N/A	30	N/A
12/31/2016	100	25	N/A	26	N/A
9/30/2016	99	21	N/A	31	N/A
6/30/2016	96	18	N/A	36	N/A
3/31/2016	91	16	N/A	35	N/A
12/31/2015	85	14	N/A	28	N/A
9/30/2015	79	13	N/A	24	N/A
6/30/2015	73	13	N/A	17	N/A
3/31/2015	69	12	N/A	15	N/A
12/31/2014	65	11	N/A	19	N/A
9/30/2014	62	11	N/A	20	N/A
6/30/2014	61	11	N/A	22	N/A
3/31/2014	60	10	N/A	18	N/A
12/31/2013	58	10	N/A	16	N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: HTBK's forecast earnings growth (7.8% per year) is above the savings rate (2.6%).

Earnings vs Market: HTBK's earnings (7.8% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (15.2% per year).

High Growth Earnings: HTBK's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: HTBK's revenue (6.4% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (9.1% per year).

High Growth Revenue: HTBK's revenue (6.4% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: HTBK's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (6.9%).

Discover growth companies

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2024/12/22 02:59
End of Day Share Price	2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings	2024/09/30
Annual Earnings	2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

Package	Data	Timeframe	Example US Source ^*
Company Financials	10 years	Income statement Cash flow statement Balance sheet	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form 10-Q
Analyst Consensus Estimates	+3 years	Forecast financials Analyst price targets	Analyst Research Reports Blue Matrix
Market Prices	30 years	Stock prices Dividends, Splits and Actions	ICE Market Data SEC Form S-1
Ownership	10 years	Top shareholders Insider trading	SEC Form 4 SEC Form 13D
Management	10 years	Leadership team Board of directors	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form DEF 14A
Key Developments	10 years	Company announcements	SEC Form 8-K

^* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Heritage Commerce Corp is covered by 12 analysts. 6 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

Analyst	Institution
Gary Tenner	D.A. Davidson & Co.
null null	D.A. Davidson & Co.
Timothy Coffey	FIG Partners

Heritage Commerce Future Growth

Future criteria checks 1/6

Key information

Recent future growth updates

Heritage Commerce Corp (NASDAQ:HTBK) Just Reported Third-Quarter Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 11%

Price target increased by 11% to US$11.50

Heritage Commerce Corp Just Missed EPS By 6.4%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 14%

Price target decreased by 7.6% to US$11.17

Recent updates

President exercised options and sold US$99k worth of stock

Heritage Commerce Corp Announces Departure of Lawrence D. Mcgovern as Executive Vice President

Heritage Commerce's (NASDAQ:HTBK) Dividend Will Be $0.13

Third quarter dividend of US$0.13 announced

Heritage Commerce Corp (NASDAQ:HTBK) Just Reported Third-Quarter Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?

Third quarter 2024 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind

Heritage Commerce Corp Declares Regular Quarterly Cash Dividend, Payable on November 21, 2024

New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth

Heritage Commerce Corp and Heritage Bank of Commerce Announce the Appointment of Thomas A. Sa as Chief Operating Officer

Heritage Commerce Corp Announces the Appointment of Thomas A. Sa as Chief Operating Officer

Heritage Commerce Corp Announces Board Changes

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 11%

Now 20% undervalued

Heritage Commerce's (NASDAQ:HTBK) Dividend Will Be $0.13

Price target increased by 11% to US$11.50

Second quarter dividend of US$0.13 announced

Second quarter 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations

Heritage Commerce Corp. Declares Regular Quarterly Cash Dividend, Payable on August 22, 2024

Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 17%

Heritage Commerce (NASDAQ:HTBK) Is Paying Out A Dividend Of $0.13

First quarter dividend of US$0.13 announced

Heritage Commerce Corp Just Missed EPS By 6.4%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Heritage Commerce Corp Declares Regular Quarterly Cash Dividend, Payable on May 23, 2024

First quarter 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations

Heritage Commerce Corp, Annual General Meeting, May 23, 2024

New minor risk - Insider selling

Full year 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations

Independent Chairman of the Board notifies of intention to sell stock

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 14%

Fourth quarter dividend of US$0.13 announced

Full year 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations

Now 21% undervalued

Heritage Commerce Corp Reports Net Charge-Offs for the Fourth Quarter Ended December 31, 2023

Independent Director exercised options to buy US$299k worth of stock.

Heritage Commerce (NASDAQ:HTBK) Is Due To Pay A Dividend Of $0.13

New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth

Heritage Commerce Corp Reports Unaudited Net Charges Write Offs for the Third Quarter Ended September 30, 2023

Heritage Commerce Corp Reports Unaudited Net Charges Write Offs for the Third Quarter Ended September 30, 2023

Third quarter 2023 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations

Heritage Commerce Corp Declares Regular Quarterly Cash Dividend, Payable on November 21, 2023

Heritage Commerce (NASDAQ:HTBK) Has Announced A Dividend Of $0.13

Heritage Commerce Corp Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend, Payable August 24, 2023

Second quarter 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations

President exercised options to buy US$165k worth of stock.

Heritage Commerce Corp Announces Retirement of Margo Butsch, Executive Vice President and Chief Credit Officer

Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 18%

Price target decreased by 7.6% to US$11.17

Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 15%

Independent Director exercised options to buy US$229k worth of stock.

Upcoming dividend of US$0.13 per share at 7.0% yield

Heritage Commerce (NASDAQ:HTBK) Has Announced A Dividend Of $0.13

Price target decreased by 8.1% to US$13.25

Price target decreased by 11% to US$13.75

Full year 2022 earnings: Revenues and EPS in line with analyst expectations

Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 17%

Independent Director recently sold US$107k worth of stock

Independent Director exercised options to buy US$366k worth of stock.

Independent Director notifies of intention to sell stock

Independent Director recently sold US$250k worth of stock

Heritage Commerce (NASDAQ:HTBK) Has Announced A Dividend Of $0.13

Upcoming dividend of US$0.13 per share at 4.3% yield

Full year 2022 earnings: Revenues and EPS in line with analyst expectations

Heritage Commerce Corp Declares Regular Quarterly Cash Dividend, Payable on February 23, 2023

Executive VP & CFO exercised options and sold US$158k worth of stock

Independent Director recently bought US$89k worth of stock

Heritage Commerce (NASDAQ:HTBK) Has Announced A Dividend Of $0.13

High number of new directors

Price target increased to US$15.33

Third quarter 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations