Heritage Commerce Corp

NasdaqGS:HTBK Stock Report

Market Cap: US$645.5m

Heritage Commerce Valuation

Is HTBK undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HTBK when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: HTBK ($10.52) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($9.55)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HTBK is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HTBK?

Key metric: As HTBK is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for HTBK. This is calculated by dividing HTBK's market cap by their current earnings.
What is HTBK's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio14.9x
EarningsUS$43.24m
Market CapUS$645.52m

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does HTBK's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for HTBK vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average15.9x
CCBG Capital City Bank Group
12.6x0.06%US$646.9m
SMBK SmartFinancial
18.5x15.9%US$605.3m
FBAK First National Bank Alaska
12.6xn/aUS$740.1m
PGC Peapack-Gladstone Financial
19.8x35.6%US$642.0m
HTBK Heritage Commerce
14.9x6.5%US$645.5m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HTBK is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.9x) compared to the peer average (15.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HTBK's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Banks Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
FRCB First Republic Bank
0.02xn/aUS$27.98m
BKGM BankGuam Holding
1xn/aUS$18.48m
SBNY Signature Bank
0.002xn/aUS$2.18m
BCBH.F Caribbean Investment Holdings
0.00001xn/aUS$132.00
No more companies available in this PE range
HTBK 14.9xIndustry Avg. 12.8xNo. of Companies75PE0612182430+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HTBK is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.9x) compared to the US Banks industry average (12.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HTBK's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HTBK PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio14.9x
Fair PE Ratio12.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: HTBK is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst HTBK forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$10.52
US$11.50
+9.3%
4.3%US$12.00US$11.00n/a6
Nov ’25US$9.65
US$11.42
+18.3%
3.9%US$12.00US$11.00n/a6
Oct ’25US$9.70
US$11.50
+18.6%
5.0%US$12.50US$11.00n/a6
Sep ’25US$10.18
US$11.58
+13.8%
4.6%US$12.50US$11.00n/a6
Aug ’25US$10.11
US$11.50
+13.7%
5.0%US$12.50US$11.00n/a6
Jul ’25US$8.55
US$10.33
+20.9%
5.3%US$11.00US$9.50n/a6
Jun ’25US$8.15
US$10.33
+26.8%
5.3%US$11.00US$9.50n/a6
May ’25US$8.13
US$10.33
+27.1%
5.3%US$11.00US$9.50n/a6
Apr ’25US$8.41
US$10.83
+28.8%
3.4%US$11.00US$10.00n/a6
Mar ’25US$8.30
US$10.83
+30.5%
3.4%US$11.00US$10.00n/a6
Feb ’25US$8.63
US$10.83
+25.5%
3.4%US$11.00US$10.00n/a6
Jan ’25US$9.92
US$10.50
+5.8%
7.8%US$12.00US$9.50n/a6
Dec ’24US$9.07
US$10.33
+13.9%
7.7%US$12.00US$9.50n/a6
Nov ’24US$8.20
US$10.33
+26.0%
7.7%US$12.00US$9.50US$9.656
Oct ’24US$8.47
US$11.08
+30.9%
9.9%US$13.00US$10.00US$9.706
Sep ’24US$8.86
US$11.25
+27.0%
8.8%US$13.00US$10.00US$10.186
Aug ’24US$9.63
US$11.25
+16.8%
8.8%US$13.00US$10.00US$10.116
Jul ’24US$8.28
US$10.83
+30.8%
9.9%US$13.00US$10.00US$8.556
Jun ’24US$7.51
US$11.00
+46.5%
10.5%US$13.00US$10.00US$8.156
May ’24US$8.15
US$11.00
+35.0%
10.5%US$13.00US$10.00US$8.136
Apr ’24US$8.33
US$13.75
+65.1%
10.4%US$15.50US$11.00US$8.416
Mar ’24US$12.13
US$14.42
+18.9%
5.5%US$15.50US$13.00US$8.306
Feb ’24US$12.19
US$14.42
+18.3%
5.5%US$15.50US$13.00US$8.636
Jan ’24US$13.00
US$15.50
+19.2%
3.7%US$16.50US$15.00US$9.926
Dec ’23US$14.25
US$15.50
+8.8%
3.7%US$16.50US$15.00US$9.076
Nov ’23US$14.24
US$15.50
+8.8%
3.7%US$16.50US$15.00US$8.206

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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