Heritage Commerce Corp

NasdaqGS:HTBK Stock Report

Market Cap: US$521.8m

Heritage Commerce Valuation

Is HTBK undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HTBK when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: HTBK ($8.58) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($15.64)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HTBK is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HTBK?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

HTBK key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenuen/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDAn/a
PEG Ratio-0.8x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does HTBK's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for HTBK vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average12.1x
SMBC Southern Missouri Bancorp
11.5x12.1%US$497.3m
FMNB Farmers National Banc
10x0.03%US$493.7m
MSBI Midland States Bancorp
8.4x0.8%US$542.3m
GCBC Greene County Bancorp
18.3xn/aUS$487.1m
HTBK Heritage Commerce
8.1x-10.1%US$521.8m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HTBK is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.1x) compared to the peer average (12.1x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HTBK's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Banks Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a6.2%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a6.2%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HTBK is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.1x) compared to the US Banks industry average (9.6x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HTBK's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HTBK PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio8.1x
Fair PE Ratio7.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: HTBK is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.8x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst HTBK forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$8.58
US$10.83
+26.3%
3.4%US$11.00US$10.00n/a6
Mar ’25US$8.30
US$10.83
+30.5%
3.4%US$11.00US$10.00n/a6
Feb ’25US$8.63
US$10.83
+25.5%
3.4%US$11.00US$10.00n/a6
Jan ’25US$9.92
US$10.50
+5.8%
7.8%US$12.00US$9.50n/a6
Dec ’24US$9.07
US$10.33
+13.9%
7.7%US$12.00US$9.50n/a6
Nov ’24US$8.20
US$10.33
+26.0%
7.7%US$12.00US$9.50n/a6
Oct ’24US$8.47
US$11.08
+30.9%
9.9%US$13.00US$10.00n/a6
Sep ’24US$8.86
US$11.25
+27.0%
8.8%US$13.00US$10.00n/a6
Aug ’24US$9.63
US$11.25
+16.8%
8.8%US$13.00US$10.00n/a6
Jul ’24US$8.28
US$10.83
+30.8%
9.9%US$13.00US$10.00n/a6
Jun ’24US$7.51
US$11.00
+46.5%
10.5%US$13.00US$10.00n/a6
May ’24US$8.15
US$11.00
+35.0%
10.5%US$13.00US$10.00n/a6
Apr ’24US$8.33
US$13.75
+65.1%
10.4%US$15.50US$11.00n/a6
Mar ’24US$12.13
US$14.42
+18.9%
5.5%US$15.50US$13.00US$8.306
Feb ’24US$12.19
US$14.42
+18.3%
5.5%US$15.50US$13.00US$8.636
Jan ’24US$13.00
US$15.50
+19.2%
3.7%US$16.50US$15.00US$9.926
Dec ’23US$14.25
US$15.50
+8.8%
3.7%US$16.50US$15.00US$9.076
Nov ’23US$14.24
US$15.50
+8.8%
3.7%US$16.50US$15.00US$8.206
Oct ’23US$11.34
US$13.75
+21.3%
4.1%US$14.50US$13.00US$8.476
Sep ’23US$11.40
US$13.75
+20.6%
4.1%US$14.50US$13.00US$8.866
Aug ’23US$11.88
US$13.75
+15.7%
4.1%US$14.50US$13.00US$9.636
Jul ’23US$10.88
US$13.92
+27.9%
8.9%US$16.00US$12.00US$8.286
Jun ’23US$11.37
US$14.42
+26.8%
8.6%US$16.00US$13.00US$7.516
May ’23US$11.23
US$14.42
+28.4%
8.6%US$16.00US$13.00US$8.156
Apr ’23US$11.55
US$14.58
+26.3%
5.0%US$16.00US$14.00US$8.336
Mar ’23US$11.45
US$14.25
+24.5%
2.7%US$15.00US$14.00US$12.136

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.


Discover undervalued companies

Price

7D

1Y

Mkt cap

PS

E.Growth

Analysts Target

Price

7D

1Y

Mkt cap

PS

E.Growth

Analysts Target

Price

7D

1Y

Mkt cap

PS

E.Growth

Analysts Target

Price

7D

1Y

Mkt cap

PS

E.Growth

Analysts Target

Simply Wall Street Pty Ltd (ACN 600 056 611), is a Corporate Authorised Representative (Authorised Representative Number: 467183) of Sanlam Private Wealth Pty Ltd (AFSL No. 337927). Any advice contained in this website is general advice only and has been prepared without considering your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should not rely on any advice and/or information contained in this website and before making any investment decision we recommend that you consider whether it is appropriate for your situation and seek appropriate financial, taxation and legal advice. Please read our Financial Services Guide before deciding whether to obtain financial services from us.