Horizon Bancorp, Inc.

NasdaqGS:HBNC Stock Report

Market Cap: US$811.8m

Horizon Bancorp Valuation

Is HBNC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HBNC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: HBNC ($18.59) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($24.95)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HBNC is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HBNC?

Key metric: As HBNC is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for HBNC. This is calculated by dividing HBNC's market cap by their current earnings.
What is HBNC's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio38.5x
EarningsUS$21.10m
Market CapUS$811.79m

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does HBNC's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for HBNC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average23.8x
EQBK Equity Bancshares
42.7x32.0%US$752.4m
HFWA Heritage Financial
24.4x29.4%US$914.6m
CPF Central Pacific Financial
15.3x14.8%US$883.1m
HAFC Hanmi Financial
12.8x9.9%US$805.2m
HBNC Horizon Bancorp
38.5x54.3%US$811.8m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HBNC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (38.5x) compared to the peer average (23.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HBNC's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Banks Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
FRCB First Republic Bank
0.02xn/aUS$27.98m
BKGM BankGuam Holding
1xn/aUS$18.48m
SBNY Signature Bank
0.002xn/aUS$2.18m
BCBH.F Caribbean Investment Holdings
0.00001xn/aUS$132.00
No more companies available in this PE range
HBNC 38.5xIndustry Avg. 13.3xNo. of Companies94PE0816243240+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HBNC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (38.5x) compared to the US Banks industry average (13.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HBNC's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HBNC PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio38.5x
Fair PE Ratio26.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: HBNC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (38.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst HBNC forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$18.59
US$19.40
+4.4%
9.6%US$22.00US$17.00n/a5
Nov ’25US$16.11
US$18.30
+13.6%
4.1%US$19.00US$17.00n/a5
Oct ’25US$14.92
US$17.50
+17.3%
5.1%US$18.50US$16.00n/a5
Sep ’25US$16.02
US$17.38
+8.5%
5.5%US$18.50US$16.00n/a4
Aug ’25US$15.11
US$17.38
+15.0%
5.5%US$18.50US$16.00n/a4
Jul ’25US$12.49
US$14.38
+15.1%
6.7%US$15.50US$13.00n/a4
Jun ’25US$12.22
US$14.38
+17.6%
6.7%US$15.50US$13.00n/a4
May ’25US$12.17
US$14.38
+18.1%
6.7%US$15.50US$13.00n/a4
Apr ’25US$12.43
US$14.88
+19.7%
6.9%US$16.50US$14.00n/a4
Mar ’25US$11.98
US$15.13
+26.3%
5.9%US$16.50US$14.00n/a4
Feb ’25US$12.80
US$15.38
+20.1%
6.2%US$16.50US$14.00n/a4
Jan ’25US$14.31
US$14.63
+2.2%
12.2%US$16.50US$12.00n/a4
Dec ’24US$11.66
US$11.50
-1.4%
7.5%US$12.00US$10.00n/a4
Nov ’24US$9.47
US$11.50
+21.4%
7.5%US$12.00US$10.00US$16.114
Oct ’24US$10.68
US$13.38
+25.2%
6.1%US$14.00US$12.00US$14.924
Sep ’24US$11.45
US$13.88
+21.2%
1.6%US$14.00US$13.50US$16.024
Aug ’24US$12.13
US$13.88
+14.4%
1.6%US$14.00US$13.50US$15.114
Jul ’24US$10.41
US$12.80
+23.0%
7.7%US$14.00US$11.00US$12.495
Jun ’24US$9.06
US$13.00
+43.5%
4.9%US$14.00US$12.00US$12.225
May ’24US$10.19
US$13.00
+27.6%
4.9%US$14.00US$12.00US$12.175
Apr ’24US$11.06
US$16.40
+48.3%
14.2%US$18.00US$12.00US$12.435
Mar ’24US$15.17
US$17.40
+14.7%
4.6%US$18.00US$16.00US$11.985
Feb ’24US$15.96
US$17.40
+9.0%
4.6%US$18.00US$16.00US$12.805
Jan ’24US$15.08
US$18.20
+20.7%
2.2%US$19.00US$18.00US$14.315
Dec ’23US$15.88
US$18.20
+14.6%
2.2%US$19.00US$18.00US$11.665
Nov ’23US$14.92
US$18.20
+22.0%
2.2%US$19.00US$18.00US$9.475

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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