FNCB Bancorp, Inc.

NasdaqCM:FNCB Stock Report

Market Cap: US$133.6m

This company has been acquired

The company may no longer be operating, as it has been acquired. Find out why through their latest events.

FNCB Bancorp Future Growth

Future criteria checks 0/6

We currently don't have sufficient analyst coverage to forecast growth and revenue for FNCB Bancorp.

Key information

n/a

Earnings growth rate

n/a

EPS growth rate

Banks earnings growth8.3%
Revenue growth raten/a
Future return on equityn/a
Analyst coverage

None

Last updatedn/a

Recent future growth updates

No updates

Recent updates

Analysis Article • Aug 21

FNCB Bancorp (NASDAQ:FNCB) Is Due To Pay A Dividend Of $0.09

FNCB Bancorp, Inc.'s ( NASDAQ:FNCB ) investors are due to receive a payment of $0.09 per share on 15th of September...
Seeking Alpha • Aug 29

FNCB Bancorp: High Dividend Yield, Flattish Earnings Outlook

Summary Strength in Pennsylvania’s job market and satisfactory regional economic activity will likely support loan growth through the end of 2023. The margin will suffer from the rising rate environment as the re-pricing of liabilities will overtake the re-pricing of assets. The equity book value will also decline due to higher interest rates. The December 2022 target price suggests a moderate upside from the current market price. Further, FNCB is offering a high dividend yield for a bank holding company. Strong loan growth will likely be the chief driver for FNCB Bancorp’s (NASDAQ: FNCB) earnings in the next year and a half. On the other hand, the margin will likely dip this year as the re-pricing of deposits will outweigh the re-pricing of earning assets. Meanwhile, the provisioning for expected loan losses will likely remain at a normal level. Overall, I'm expecting FNCB Bancorp to report earnings of $1.06 per share in 2022, almost unchanged from last year. For 2023, I'm expecting the company to report earnings of $1.15 per share, up 9% year-over-year. The year-end target price suggests a moderate upside from the current market price. Further, FNCB is offering a high dividend yield. Based on the total expected return, I'm adopting a buy rating on FNCB Bancorp. Pennsylvania's Economy is Pivotal for Loan Growth Compared to previous years, FNCB Bancorp’s loan growth has been extraordinary so far this year. The portfolio has already grown by 11.2% in the first half (22% annualized), raising hopes of at least mid-teen growth for the full year. However, high interest rates are likely to dampen credit appetite, leading to a deceleration of the growth rate from the first half’s level. On the other hand, strong job markets and reasonable economic activity in local markets will likely keep loan growth near the historical median. FNCB mainly operates in northeastern Pennsylvania, including Lackawanna, Luzerne, and Wayne counties. The state has a commendable job market, with an unemployment rate that is very low from a historical perspective. Pennsylvania Unemployment Rate data by YCharts Further, the coincident index indicates that economic activity in Pennsylvania is at a satisfactory level. Philly Fed Pennsylvania Coincident Index data by YCharts Overall, I'm expecting the loan portfolio to grow by 2% every quarter, or 8% annualized, through the end of 2023, which is close to the historical trend. Margin to Suffer from Rising Interest Rates FNCB's balance sheet is liability sensitive in the short term, which means the re-pricing of liabilities will outweigh the re-pricing of assets. The following factors contribute to liability sensitivity. A large balance of adjustable-rate deposits. Non-maturing interest-bearing deposits made up a hefty 66% of total deposits at the end of June 2022, according to details given in the 10-Q filing. These deposits re-price frequently; therefore, they will pressurize the margin amid a rising rate environment. A large balance of securities. The available-for-sale debt securities portfolio made up a sizable 31% of total earning assets at the end of June 2022. A majority of debt securities are based on fixed rates. Therefore, they will weigh down the average earning-asset yield as rates rise. The results of the management’s interest-rate sensitivity analysis given in the 10-Q filing showed that a 200-basis points hike in interest rates could DECREASE the net interest income by 7.4% over months. Considering these factors, I'm expecting the margin to dip by 5 basis points in the second half of 2022 and then remain unchanged throughout 2023. Normalized Provisioning Likely The loan portfolio’s asset quality has improved tremendously over the last year. Nonperforming loans made up just 0.26% of total loans at the end of June 2022, down from 0.46% at the end of June 2021. As a result of the reduction in nonperforming loans, the allowance now appears at a comfortable level. Allowances were 1.23% of total loans at the end of June 2022. In my opinion, FNCB can easily ride out the upcoming headwinds without making any out-of-the-ordinary contributions to reserves. The upcoming headwinds include high inflation, rising interest rates, and the possibility of a recession. Overall, I believe provisioning will likely remain at a normal level through the end of 2023. I'm expecting the net provision expense to make up around 0.17% of total loans (annualized) in every quarter till the end of next year, which is the same as the average from 2017 to 2019. Expecting Flattish Earnings for 2022, Moderate Growth for 2023 The anticipated loan growth discussed above will likely be the chief driver of earnings for the next year and a half. On the other hand, the reduction in net interest margin will likely drag earnings. Meanwhile, provisioning for expected loan losses will likely remain at a normal rate. Overall, I'm expecting FNCB to report earnings of $1.06 per share for 2022, almost unchanged from last year. For 2023, I'm expecting earnings to grow by 9% to $1.15 per share. The following table shows my income statement estimates. FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E Income Statement Net interest income 37 36 40 49 54 59 Provision for loan losses 2.6 0.8 1.9 0.2 1.8 2.0 Non-interest income 12 8 9 8 7 7 Non-interest expense 29 30 29 31 34 36 Net income - Common Sh. 13 11 15 21 21 23 EPS - Diluted ($) 0.79 0.56 0.76 1.06 1.06 1.15 Source: SEC Filings, Earnings Releases, Author's Estimates (In USD million unless otherwise specified) Actual earnings may differ materially from estimates because of the risks and uncertainties related to inflation, and consequently the timing and magnitude of interest rate hikes. Further, a stronger or longer-than-anticipated recession can increase the provisioning for expected loan losses beyond my estimates. Further Book Value Erosion Likely FNCB has a large balance of available-for-sale securities, which made up 31% of total earning assets at the end of June 2022. As a result, the company has accumulated significant mark-to-market losses on this portfolio amid the rising-rate environment. These unrealized losses have bypassed the income statement and gone directly to the equity account, as per relevant accounting standards. Consequently, the equity book value (tangible) has plunged from $8.13 per share at the end of December 2021 to $6.38 per share at the end of June 2022, according to details given in the earnings release. I'm expecting a 150-basis point hike in the Federal Funds rate in the second half of 2022 and no change in the first half of 2023 before some rate cuts in late 2023. Therefore, the equity book value will face further pressure this year. On the other hand, retained earnings will lift the book value per share. The following table shows my balance sheet estimates.
Analysis Article • Aug 08

FNCB Bancorp (NASDAQ:FNCB) Will Pay A Larger Dividend Than Last Year At $0.09

FNCB Bancorp, Inc. ( NASDAQ:FNCB ) has announced that it will be increasing its dividend from last year's comparable...
Seeking Alpha • Jul 27

FNCB Bancorp raises dividend by 20% to $0.09/share

FNCB Bancorp (NASDAQ:FNCB) declares $0.09/share quarterly dividend, 20% increase from prior dividend of $0.075. Forward yield 4.68% Payable Sept. 15; for shareholders of record Sept. 1; ex-div Aug. 31. See FNCB Dividend Scorecard, Yield Chart, & Dividend Growth.
Analysis Article • May 03

Is Now The Time To Put FNCB Bancorp (NASDAQ:FNCB) On Your Watchlist?

Like a puppy chasing its tail, some new investors often chase 'the next big thing', even if that means buying 'story...
Seeking Alpha • Apr 04

FNCB Bancorp: A 3.16% Yield With A Sub-30% Payout Ratio

FNCB Bancorp is the holding company of a small community bank in Pennsylvania with just under $1.7B in total assets. The bank's EPS exceeded $1 in 2021 and should remain above this level in 2022, even when loan loss provisions normalize. Only a very small minority of the loan book is classified as non-accrual, and the current loan loss provisions seem to be covering the risks. The dividend yield is low, but FNCB retains the majority of its earnings, this boosts the TBV by over $0.70 per year.
Analysis Article • Oct 31

FNCB Bancorp (NASDAQ:FNCB) Is Increasing Its Dividend To US$0.075

FNCB Bancorp, Inc. ( NASDAQ:FNCB ) has announced that it will be increasing its dividend on the 15th of December to...
Seeking Alpha • Sep 07

FNCB Bancorp: This Undervalued Under-The-Radar Bank Has Upside

Cost reductions driving widening net interest income. Loans and deposits both growing while asset quality has improved. Attractive valuation, and trading right at book. Increased dividend.
Analysis Article • Aug 05

FNCB Bancorp (NASDAQ:FNCB) Is Increasing Its Dividend To US$0.075

The board of FNCB Bancorp, Inc. ( NASDAQ:FNCB ) has announced that it will be increasing its dividend on the 15th of...
Analysis Article • May 06

Shareholders May Be A Bit More Conservative With FNCB Bancorp, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:FNCB) CEO Compensation For Now

In the past three years, the share price of FNCB Bancorp, Inc. ( NASDAQ:FNCB ) has struggled to grow and now...
Analysis Article • May 02

Is FNCB Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ:FNCB) A Great Dividend Stock?

Dividend paying stocks like FNCB Bancorp, Inc. ( NASDAQ:FNCB ) tend to be popular with investors, and for good reason...
Analysis Article • Mar 28

Is Now The Time To Put FNCB Bancorp (NASDAQ:FNCB) On Your Watchlist?

Like a puppy chasing its tail, some new investors often chase 'the next big thing', even if that means buying 'story...
Analysis Article • Feb 21

FNCB Bancorp (NASDAQ:FNCB) Shareholders Booked A 20% Gain In The Last Five Years

If you buy and hold a stock for many years, you'd hope to be making a profit. Furthermore, you'd generally like to see...
Analysis Article • Dec 30

Would FNCB Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ:FNCB) Be Valuable To Income Investors?

Today we'll take a closer look at FNCB Bancorp, Inc. ( NASDAQ:FNCB ) from a dividend investor's perspective. Owning a...
Analysis Article • Nov 25

FNCB Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ:FNCB) Will Pay A US$0.055 Dividend In Four Days

It looks like FNCB Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ:FNCB) is about to go ex-dividend in the next 4 days. Ex-dividend means that...

In this section we usually present revenue and earnings growth projections based on the consensus estimates of professional analysts to help investors understand the company’s ability to generate profit. But as FNCB Bancorp has not provided enough past data and has no analyst forecast, its future earnings cannot be reliably calculated by extrapolating past data or using analyst predictions.

This is quite a rare situation as 97% of companies covered by SimplyWall St do have past financial data.

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NasdaqCM:FNCB - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
3/31/202454142222N/A
12/31/202353131616N/A
9/30/202353151515N/A
6/30/202355161717N/A
3/31/202358192021N/A
12/31/202260201920N/A
9/30/202259192324N/A
6/30/202258202021N/A
3/31/202257201718N/A
12/31/202156212324N/A
9/30/202156231819N/A
6/30/202154201719N/A
3/31/202151192021N/A
12/31/202047151820N/A
9/30/202046141820N/A
6/30/202043121720N/A
3/31/202042111418N/A
12/31/201943111015N/A
9/30/201942151722N/A
6/30/201941141822N/A
3/31/201941141620N/A
12/31/201840131723N/A
9/30/20183901015N/A
6/30/2018391813N/A
3/31/20183901115N/A
12/31/2017400N/A12N/A
9/30/2017388N/A10N/A
6/30/2017388N/A11N/A
3/31/2017377N/A11N/A
12/31/2016366N/A0N/A
9/30/20163734N/A-4N/A
6/30/20163634N/A-4N/A
3/31/20163434N/A-4N/A
12/31/20153736N/A4N/A
9/30/2015357N/A7N/A
6/30/2015388N/A6N/A
3/31/20154413N/A3N/A
12/31/20144513N/A9N/A
9/30/20144815N/A9N/A
6/30/20144614N/A20N/A
3/31/2014418N/A20N/A
12/31/2013406N/A18N/A
9/30/201334-1N/A11N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: Insufficient data to determine if FNCB's forecast earnings growth is above the savings rate (2.4%).

Earnings vs Market: Insufficient data to determine if FNCB's earnings are forecast to grow faster than the US market

High Growth Earnings: Insufficient data to determine if FNCB's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: Insufficient data to determine if FNCB's revenue is forecast to grow faster than the US market.

High Growth Revenue: Insufficient data to determine if FNCB's revenue is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if FNCB's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/07/01 20:32
End of Day Share Price 2024/07/01 00:00
Earnings2024/03/31
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

FNCB Bancorp, Inc. is covered by 0 analysts. 0 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.