Chemung Financial (NasdaqGS:CHMG) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of CHMG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

CHMG ($42.18) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] ($115.45)

CHMG fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	5/6
Future Growth	0/6
Past Performance	4/6
Financial Health	6/6
Dividends	4/6

CHMG Stock Overview

Chemung Financial Corporation operates as the holding company for Chemung Canal Trust Company that provides a range of banking, financing, fiduciary, and other financial services.

Rewards

Trading at 63.5% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings grew by 15.3% over the past year

Pays a reliable dividend of 2.94%

Trading at good value vs. peer average Price-To-Earnings ratio

Trading at good value vs. industry average Price-To-Earnings ratio

Trading below our calculated fair Price-To-Earnings ratio

Risk Analysis

Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 2.5% per year for the next 3 years

Significant insider selling over the past 3 months

Chemung Financial Competitors

Cashmere Valley Bank

OTCPK:CSHX

US$194.2m

Investar Holding

NasdaqGM:ISTR

US$203.0m

Malaga Financial

OTCPK:MLGF

US$191.3m

Ames National

NasdaqCM:ATLO

US$198.0m

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Chemung Financial
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$42.18
52 Week High	US$49.50
52 Week Low	US$40.75
Beta	-0.00040
1 Month Change	-8.49%
3 Month Change	-2.47%
1 Year Change	-4.42%
3 Year Change	0.38%
5 Year Change	-10.45%
Change since IPO	234.10%

Recent News & Updates

Sep 07

Chemung Financial's (NASDAQ:CHMG) Dividend Will Be $0.31

The board of Chemung Financial Corporation ( NASDAQ:CHMG ) has announced that it will pay a dividend of $0.31 per share...

Aug 21

Chemung Financial (NASDAQ:CHMG) Is Paying Out A Dividend Of $0.31

Chemung Financial Corporation ( NASDAQ:CHMG ) will pay a dividend of $0.31 on the 3rd of October. Based on this...

Aug 17

Chemung Financial declares $0.31 dividend

Chemung Financial (NASDAQ:CHMG) declares $0.31/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous. Forward yield 2.66% Payable Oct. 3; for shareholders of record Sept. 19; ex-div Sept. 16. See CHMG Dividend Scorecard, Yield Chart, & Dividend Growth.

Shareholder Returns

	CHMG	US Banks	US Market
7D	0.02%	-5.8%	-5.2%
1Y	-4.4%	-21.7%	-23.1%

Return vs Industry: CHMG exceeded the US Banks industry which returned -21.7% over the past year.

Return vs Market: CHMG exceeded the US Market which returned -23.1% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is CHMG's price volatile compared to industry and market?
CHMG volatility
CHMG Average Weekly Movement	3.5%
Banks Industry Average Movement	3.4%
Market Average Movement	6.9%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	15.9%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	2.8%

Stable Share Price: CHMG is less volatile than 75% of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 3% a week.

Volatility Over Time: CHMG's weekly volatility (3%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1833	337	Anders Tomson	https://www.chemungcanal.com

Chemung Financial Corporation operates as the holding company for Chemung Canal Trust Company that provides a range of banking, financing, fiduciary, and other financial services. The company provides demand, savings, and time deposits; non-interest and interest-bearing checking accounts; and insured money market accounts. It also offers commercial and agricultural loans comprising loans to small to mid-sized businesses; commercial mortgage loans; residential mortgage loans; consumer loans, including home equity lines of credit and home equity term loans; and interest rate swaps, letters of credit, wealth management, employee benefit plans, mutual fund, insurance products, and brokerage services.

Chemung Financial Fundamentals Summary

How do Chemung Financial's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
CHMG fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$197.22m
Earnings (TTM)	US$27.99m
Revenue (TTM)	US$93.24m

7.0x

P/E Ratio

1.1x

P/B Ratio

Is CHMG overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
CHMG income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$93.24m
Cost of Revenue	US$0
Gross Profit	US$93.24m
Other Expenses	US$65.25m
Earnings	US$27.99m

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	5.99
Gross Margin	100.00%
Net Profit Margin	30.02%
Debt/Equity Ratio	26.3%

How did CHMG perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

2.9%

Current Dividend Yield

21%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is CHMG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CHMG?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for CHMG. This is calculated by dividing CHMG's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is CHMG's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$197.22m

CHMG key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	n/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	n/a
PEG Ratio	-2.9x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does CHMG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

CHMG PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for CHMG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	9.3x
CSHX Cashmere Valley Bank	7x	n/a	US$194.2m
ISTR Investar Holding	12.3x	-2.2%	US$203.0m
MLGF Malaga Financial	9.8x	n/a	US$191.3m
ATLO Ames National	9.3x	n/a	US$198.0m
CHMG Chemung Financial	7x	-2.5%	US$197.2m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CHMG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7x) compared to the peer average (9.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does CHMG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Banks Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: CHMG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7x) compared to the US Banks industry average (9.7x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CHMG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CHMG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	7x
Fair PE Ratio	9.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: CHMG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.9x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CHMG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: CHMG ($42.18) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($115.45)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CHMG is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Future Growth

How is Chemung Financial forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 3 analysts?

Future Growth Score

0/6

Future Growth Score 0/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

-2.5%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: CHMG's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-2.5% per year).

Earnings vs Market: CHMG's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-2.5% per year).

High Growth Earnings: CHMG's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: CHMG's revenue (4.4% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (7.6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: CHMG's revenue (4.4% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if CHMG's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time

Discover growth companies

Past Performance

How has Chemung Financial performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

4/6

Past Performance Score 4/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

20.0%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: CHMG has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: CHMG's current net profit margins (30%) are higher than last year (27.9%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: CHMG's earnings have grown by 20% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: CHMG's earnings growth over the past year (15.3%) is below its 5-year average (20% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: CHMG earnings growth over the past year (15.3%) exceeded the Banks industry 8.7%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: CHMG's Return on Equity (16%) is considered low.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Chemung Financial's financial position? (This company is analysed differently as a bank or financial institution)

Financial Health Score

6/6

Financial Health Score 6/6

Asset Level
Allowance for Bad Loans
Low Risk Liabilities
Loan Level
Low Risk Deposits
Level of Bad Loans

Financial Position Analysis

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Balance Sheet

Financial Institutions Analysis

Asset Level: CHMG's Assets to Equity ratio (14x) is moderate.

Allowance for Bad Loans: CHMG has a sufficient allowance for bad loans (237%).

Low Risk Liabilities: 96% of CHMG's liabilities are made up of primarily low risk sources of funding.

Loan Level: CHMG has an appropriate level of Loans to Assets ratio (65%).

Low Risk Deposits: CHMG's Loans to Deposits ratio (73%) is appropriate.

Level of Bad Loans: CHMG has an appropriate level of bad loans (0.5%).

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Dividend

What is Chemung Financial current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

4/6

Dividend Score 4/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

2.94%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: CHMG's dividend (2.94%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.65%).

High Dividend: CHMG's dividend (2.94%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4.57%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: CHMG's dividends per share have been stable in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: CHMG's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.

Current Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its low payout ratio (20.8%), CHMG's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.

Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: Insufficient data to determine if a dividend will be paid in 3 years or that it will be covered by earnings.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

5.8yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Anders Tomson (55 yo)

5.75yrs

Tenure

US$1,040,542

Compensation

Mr. Anders M. Tomson has been the Chief Executive Officer and Director of Chemung Canal Trust Company and Chemung Financial Corporation since December 22, 2016. He serves as President & CEO of CFS Group, I...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Anders's total compensation ($USD1.04M) is below average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD1.68M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Anders's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: CHMG's management team is seasoned and experienced (5.8 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: CHMG's board of directors are considered experienced (7.2 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: CHMG insiders have only sold shares in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

NasdaqGS:CHMG Recent Insider Transactions by Companies or Individuals
Date	Value	Name	Entity	Shares	Max Price
27 Jul 22	SellUS$203,887	Ronald Bentley	Individual	4,522	US$45.09
26 Jul 22	SellUS$112,355	Ronald Bentley	Individual	2,478	US$45.58
26 Jul 22	SellUS$22,647	Thomas Wirth	Individual	500	US$45.29
16 Jun 22	SellUS$76,920	Loren Cole	Individual	1,798	US$42.78
03 Jun 22	BuyUS$44,950	Denise Gonick	Individual	1,000	US$44.95
20 May 22	SellUS$51,887	Loren Cole	Individual	1,150	US$45.12
01 Feb 22	SellUS$36,492	Denise Gonick	Individual	800	US$45.62
28 Jan 22	BuyUS$37,120	Denise Gonick	Individual	800	US$46.40
19 Nov 21	BuyUS$14,720	G. Tranter	Individual	320	US$46.00

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Top Shareholders

Top 25 shareholders own 51.55% of the company

Ownership	Name	Shares	Current Value	Change %	Portfolio %
8.13%	David Dalrymple	380,058	$16.0m	0.06%	no data
6.59%	FJ Capital Management, LLC	308,000	$13.0m	-4.77%	1.22%
5.94%	Chemung Canal Trust Company	277,877	$11.7m	-5.72%	no data
5.28%	Robert Dalrymple	246,932	$10.4m	0%	no data
3.9%	Basswood Capital Management, L.L.C.	182,198	$7.7m	29.04%	0.47%
3.28%	The Vanguard Group, Inc.	153,353	$6.5m	-0.07%	no data
2.07%	Dimensional Fund Advisors LP	96,735	$4.1m	3.7%	no data
1.84%	AllianceBernstein L.P.	86,058	$3.6m	10.63%	no data
1.56%	Royce & Associates, LP	73,043	$3.1m	-8.67%	0.03%
1.56%	Richard Swan	72,754	$3.1m	0%	no data
1.38%	First Manhattan Co.	64,683	$2.7m	-4.91%	0.01%
1.18%	Renaissance Technologies LLC	55,322	$2.3m	-5.12%	no data
1.05%	Bridgeway Capital Management, LLC	49,191	$2.1m	0%	0.05%
0.99%	Anders Tomson	46,474	$2.0m	2.13%	no data
0.96%	Ronald Bentley	44,753	$1.9m	-13.53%	no data
0.79%	Larry Becker	37,033	$1.6m	-3.8%	no data
0.72%	Acadian Asset Management LLC	33,616	$1.4m	0%	0.01%
0.7%	Geode Capital Management, LLC	32,806	$1.4m	3.27%	no data
0.65%	Morgan Stanley, Investment Banking and Brokerage Investments	30,231	$1.3m	-0.03%	no data
0.59%	LSV Asset Management	27,353	$1.2m	-2.15%	no data
0.55%	G. Tranter	25,736	$1.1m	1.66%	no data
0.51%	Louis Difabio	24,050	$1.0m	0%	no data
0.48%	Forum Financial Management, LP	22,368	$943.5k	0%	0.05%
0.43%	Thomas Wirth	20,265	$854.8k	0.68%	no data
0.41%	Stephen Lounsberry	19,302	$814.2k	0.48%	no data

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/09/24 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/09/23 00:00
Earnings	2022/06/30
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31