Stock Analysis

Shareholders Of Popular (NASDAQ:BPOP) Must Be Happy With Their 171% Total Return

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NasdaqGS:BPOP
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The worst result, after buying shares in a company (assuming no leverage), would be if you lose all the money you put in. But on the bright side, you can make far more than 100% on a really good stock. For instance, the price of Popular, Inc. (NASDAQ:BPOP) stock is up an impressive 138% over the last five years. It's also good to see the share price up 45% over the last quarter.

See our latest analysis for Popular

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During five years of share price growth, Popular actually saw its EPS drop 6.3% per year.

This means it's unlikely the market is judging the company based on earnings growth. Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

On the other hand, Popular's revenue is growing nicely, at a compound rate of 7.0% over the last five years. It's quite possible that management are prioritizing revenue growth over EPS growth at the moment.

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
NasdaqGS:BPOP Earnings and Revenue Growth January 24th 2021

It is of course excellent to see how Popular has grown profits over the years, but the future is more important for shareholders. This free interactive report on Popular's balance sheet strength is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Popular the TSR over the last 5 years was 171%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

Popular shareholders are up 5.5% for the year (even including dividends). But that return falls short of the market. On the bright side, the longer term returns (running at about 22% a year, over half a decade) look better. It's quite possible the business continues to execute with prowess, even as the share price gains are slowing. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Popular you should be aware of.

If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

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What are the risks and opportunities for Popular?

Popular, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides various retail, mortgage, and commercial banking products and services in Puerto Rico, the United States, and British Virgin Islands.

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Rewards

  • Trading at 60.9% below our estimate of its fair value

  • Earnings grew by 18% over the past year

Risks

  • Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 25% per year for the next 3 years

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