Southern California Bancorp (NASDAQ:BCAL) Analysts Are Pretty Bullish On The Stock After Recent Results

Southern California Bancorp (NASDAQ:BCAL) just released its latest yearly report and things are not looking great. Results look to have been somewhat negative - revenue fell 2.5% short of analyst estimates at US$97m, and statutory earnings of US$1.39 per share missed forecasts by 4.5%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Southern California Bancorp

After the latest results, the two analysts covering Southern California Bancorp are now predicting revenues of US$120.1m in 2024. If met, this would reflect a sizeable 24% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to plunge 41% to US$0.83 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$98.0m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.25 in 2024. Although revenues are expected to increase meaningfully, the analysts have acknowledged the cost of growth, given the pretty serious reduction to EPS estimates following the latest report.

Curiously, the consensus price target rose 7.9% to US$20.50. We can only conclude that the forecast revenue growth is expected to offset the impact of the expected fall in earnings.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Southern California Bancorp's past performance and to peers in the same industry. The period to the end of 2024 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 24% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 29% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 5.7% per year. So it's pretty clear that Southern California Bancorp is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Southern California Bancorp. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Southern California Bancorp. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have analyst estimates for Southern California Bancorp going out as far as 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Southern California Bancorp has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is potentially serious) we think you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.