US$67.00: That's What Analysts Think XPEL, Inc. (NASDAQ:XPEL) Is Worth After Its Latest Results

Shareholders might have noticed that XPEL, Inc. (NASDAQ:XPEL) filed its full-year result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.8% to US$52.98 in the past week. XPEL beat revenue expectations by 2.3%, at US$396m. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in at US$1.91, some 2.3% short of analyst estimates. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for XPEL

After the latest results, the two analysts covering XPEL are now predicting revenues of US$441.1m in 2024. If met, this would reflect a solid 11% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to swell 11% to US$2.13. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$434.0m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.33 in 2024. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

The average price target fell 31% to US$67.00, with reduced earnings forecasts clearly tied to a lower valuation estimate.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that XPEL's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 11% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 28% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this to the 60 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 9.8% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like XPEL is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for XPEL. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on XPEL. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have analyst estimates for XPEL going out as far as 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also view our analysis of XPEL's balance sheet, and whether we think XPEL is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.