More Unpleasant Surprises Could Be In Store For XPEL, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:XPEL) Shares After Tumbling 26%

XPEL, Inc. (NASDAQ:XPEL) shareholders that were waiting for something to happen have been dealt a blow with a 26% share price drop in the last month. The drop over the last 30 days has capped off a tough year for shareholders, with the share price down 39% in that time.

In spite of the heavy fall in price, there still wouldn't be many who think XPEL's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 19.5x is worth a mention when the median P/E in the United States is similar at about 18x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/E ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

XPEL hasn't been tracking well recently as its declining earnings compare poorly to other companies, which have seen some growth on average. It might be that many expect the dour earnings performance to strengthen positively, which has kept the P/E from falling. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a relatively elevated price for a company with this sort of growth profile.

See our latest analysis for XPEL

If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on XPEL.

Does Growth Match The P/E?

XPEL's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the market.

If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 14%. However, a few very strong years before that means that it was still able to grow EPS by an impressive 44% in total over the last three years. So we can start by confirming that the company has generally done a very good job of growing earnings over that time, even though it had some hiccups along the way.

Turning to the outlook, the next year should generate growth of 9.7% as estimated by the three analysts watching the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to expand by 14%, which is noticeably more attractive.

With this information, we find it interesting that XPEL is trading at a fairly similar P/E to the market. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. These shareholders may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

The Final Word

With its share price falling into a hole, the P/E for XPEL looks quite average now. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

We've established that XPEL currently trades on a higher than expected P/E since its forecast growth is lower than the wider market. Right now we are uncomfortable with the P/E as the predicted future earnings aren't likely to support a more positive sentiment for long. This places shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with XPEL, and understanding should be part of your investment process.

If P/E ratios interest you, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.