Rivian (RIVN): Evaluating the Stock’s Valuation After Its Autonomy & AI Day Announcements

Rivian Automotive (RIVN) just turned a lot of heads with its first Autonomy and AI Day, unveiling a homegrown AI driving chip and paid autonomy features that could reshape how investors value the stock.

See our latest analysis for Rivian Automotive.

The Autonomy and AI Day has clearly fed into that story, with bullish analyst upgrades helping drive Rivian’s roughly 51% 1 month share price return and 62% 1 year total shareholder return. This signals that momentum is building rather than fading at the current $22.45 level.

If this kind of autonomy fueled rerating has your attention, it is worth seeing what other EV makers are doing by scanning auto manufacturers for more potential ideas.

Yet with Rivian still unprofitable and its shares now hovering near fresh highs, is this simply the early innings of a multiyear AI and EV rerating, or has the market already priced in most of that future growth?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 42.5% Overvalued

With Rivian closing at $22.45 against a most popular narrative fair value of $15.75, that framework points to a meaningfully stretched valuation and front loaded expectations.

The launch of the R2 platform represents a step change improvement in Rivian's cost structure, with management securing supplier contracts and component sourcing that reduce bill of materials by nearly 50% versus R1, significantly lowering per unit costs. This operational overhaul is expected to improve gross margins and the path to profitability as scale is achieved.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to understand why such aggressive cost cuts still lead to an overvaluation call, not a bargain label, at today’s price? Read the complete narrative to see which growth, margin, and valuation assumptions reshape the upside case.

Result: Fair Value of $15.75 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, policy shifts that remove EV incentives and ongoing high cash burn could delay profitability and force dilutive capital raises, undermining today’s optimistic assumptions.

Find out about the key risks to this Rivian Automotive narrative.

Build Your Own Rivian Automotive Narrative

If you would rather test the assumptions yourself and challenge this view, you can quickly build a personalized story in minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Rivian Automotive research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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